墨国油下调2021年石油产量目标

据油价网9月9日报道，墨西哥将能源巨头墨西哥国家石油公司(Pemex)明年的石油产量目标下调逾8%，对于那些了解该公司沉重债务负担的人来说，这一举动并不令人意外。尽管国家慷慨援助，但债务负担严重限制了该公司提高产量的能力。

据彭博社报道，墨西哥财政部表示，预计墨西哥石油公司2021年日产量为185.7万桶，低于今年4月预计的202.7万桶。巴克莱(Barclays)拉丁美洲首席经济学家马可?奥维耶多(Marco Oviedo)向彭博社(Bloomberg)表示，墨西哥国家石油公司不太可能达到较低的目标。

根据政府计划，墨国油本应在2021年将石油产量提高约50万桶。然而，由于墨国油最大的海上油田Maloob的产量大幅下降，7月份产量降至154万桶/天。今年，Maloob的产量下降了30%以上。 这意味着Pemex7月份的总销量跌至历史新低。 这导致人们猜测该国可能不得不修改2021年的生产目标。 如今，修改是一个事实。

然而，墨国油不仅无法实现其2021年的生产目标。它也很有可能达不到今年的水平。预计该公司日平均产量为183万桶，但由于Maloob油田产量下降，且没有与境况较好的石油公司签订新的生产合同，因此不太可能实现这一目标。更不可能的是，今年1月-7月，墨西哥国家石油公司的日均产量仅为169.2万桶，而新冠疫情又使问题变得更加复杂。

郝芬 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Mexico’s Pemex Slashes Oil Production Target For 2021

Mexico has revised down energy giant Pemex’s oil production target for next year by more than 8 percent in what was a no-surprise move to those familiar with the company’s heavy debt burden, which significantly limits its ability to boost production despite generous state help.

The Mexican Ministry of Finance said it now expected Pemex to produce 1.857 million bpd in 2021, according to a Bloomberg report, down from a projection of 2.027 million bpd made in April this year. Yet, according to at least one analyst, even the revised 2021 average looks too optimistic. Barclays’ chief economist for Latin America, Marco Oviedo, told Bloomberg that Pemex was unlikely to hit that lower target. “

According to government plans, Pemex was supposed to boost oil production by about half a million barrels in 2021. Instead, in July, production fell to 1.54 million bpd because of a sharp drop in the output from Pemex’s largest offshore field, Maloob. Output from Maloob fell by more than 30 percent on the year. This meant Pemex’s total for July fell to a record low. That led to speculation that the country might have to revise down its production target for 2021. Now, the revision is a fact.

Yet Pemex is not only set for failure in meeting its 2021 production target. It is also very likely it will fall short of this year’s one, too. The company was expected to produce a daily average of 1.83 million barrels of oil, but with the Maloob field output falling and no new production contracts with better-off oil companies on the table, this is unlikely. What makes it even more unlikely is the fact that for the January to July period, Pemex’s average daily has been just 1.692 million bpd, with the coronavirus pandemic complicating matters further.