ACCC：低油价和LNG价格增加中长期供应风险

据世界天然气网站9月15日消息 在2020年初，COVID-19大流行期间，石油和天然气价格暴跌至创纪录的低水平。

澳大利亚竞争和消费者委员会（ACCC）在其《2017-2025年天然气市场调查报告》中指出，目前还不清楚这一流行病的全部影响。不过，预计今年及以后，天然气供需都将受到冲击。

石油和液化天然气价格的下跌，虽然给国内天然气用户带来了一些短期缓解，但从中长期来看，增加了天然气市场面临的供应风险。

监督机构指出，尽管这些事件造成了不确定性，但东海岸天然气供应目前预计将足以满足2021年的国内和出口需求。

然而，不确定性增加，因为预计2021年东海岸将比2020年更依赖未开发的2P储量的产量。

这些储量的开发将需要大量投资，在低油价环境下，生产商可能不愿意进行这些投资。预计2021年南部各州约21%的产量将来自未开发的2P储量。

昆士兰州的液化天然气生产商预计，2021年天然气供应量将超过其国内和出口承诺的84 PJ，这些天然气可以出口，也可以用于供应国内市场。液化天然气生产商目前预计将成为国内市场的净贡献者。

在石油和液化天然气现货价格大幅下跌后，一些生产商已宣布大幅削减资本支出，并推迟了一些项目。虽然这些变化的影响在大多数情况下预计会影响中期供应，但少数生产商已告知我们，这也可能影响2021年的产量。

吴恒磊 编译自 世界天然气

原文如下：

ACCC: low oil and LNG prices hike medium, long-term supply risk

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 saw the collapse of oil and gas prices to record low levels.

In its Gas Market Inquiry 2017-2025 report, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) noted that the full effect of the pandemic is still unclear. However, it is expected to hit both supply and demand for gas this year and beyond.

The fall in oil and LNG prices, while bringing some short-term relief to domestic gas users, has increased the supply risks facing the gas market over the medium to long term.

The watchdog noted that despite the uncertainty created by these events, east coast gas supply is currently expected to be sufficient to meet forecast domestic and export demand in 2021.

However, uncertainty is heightened because the east coast is expected to be more reliant on production from undeveloped 2P reserves in 2021 than it was for 2020.

The development of these reserves will require significant investments which producers may be less able or willing to undertake in a low oil price environment. Around 21 per cent of production in 2021 in southern states is expected to come from undeveloped 2P reserves.

LNG producers in Queensland expect to have 84 PJ of gas available in excess of their domestic and export commitments in 2021, which could either be exported or used to supply the domestic market. The LNG producers currently expect to be net contributors to the domestic market.

Following the sharp fall in oil and LNG spot prices, a number of producers have announced significant reductions in capital expenditure and delays to some projects. While the effects of these changes are in most cases expected to affect supply over the medium-term, a small number of producers have informed us that it may also affect production in 2021.