EIA预测美国页岩油产量将继续下降

据油价网2020年9月15日休斯敦报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)在其最新一期钻井生产力报告中表示，美国10月份页岩油日产量将减少6.8万桶，除二叠纪页岩远景区外，其它6个页岩远景区10月份的页岩油产量都将出现下降。

尽管二叠纪页岩远景区10月份的页岩油产量预计将日增2.3万桶，至417.3万桶，但仅仅奈厄布拉勒页岩远景区10月份下降的页岩油产量就将抵消这一产量的增长。在鹰福特页岩远景区，10月份页岩油日产量将减少2.8万桶，降幅最大，而阿纳达科、巴肯和阿巴拉契亚页岩远景区10月份的页岩油日产量将分别减少2万桶、1.9万桶和1万桶。

这意味着美国10月份的页岩油日总产量可能平均为764万桶，低于9月份的770.8万桶。

美国页岩远景区的石油产量在春季末急剧下降，原因是油价暴跌导致许多产油井无利可图，甚至出现亏损。由于油价仍比年初水准低大约40%，且前景黯淡，10月份的油价下跌可能不会是页岩油面临的最后一个月下跌。

石油需求前景对油价来说仍然是唯一的最不利因素，这方面的最新打击是英国石油公司的2020年能源展望报告。根据该报告，全球石油需求可能永远无法恢复到新冠肺炎疫情大流行前的水平，这意味着全球石油消费可能已在去年见顶。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Production Continues To Decline

Crude oil production in the U.S. shale patch is set to decline by 68,000 bpd next month, with every play registering declines in output except the Permian, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report.

While production in the Permian is expected to increase by 23,000 bpd to 4,173 million barrels daily, output in the Niobrara shale play alone will offset this with an equal decline. In the Eagle Ford, production is set to decline by 28,000 bpd—the biggest decline—while production in the Anadarko, Bakken, and Appalachia plays is seen to fall by 20,000 bpd, 19,000 bpd, and 1,000 bpd, respectively.

This means total shale oil production in October could average 7.64 million bpd daily next month, down from 7.708 million bpd this month.

Oil production across U.S. shale plays fell sharply in late spring as the oil price collapse made a lot of wells unprofitable and even loss-making. With oil prices still around 40 percent below their levels from the start of the year and the outlook negative, the October decline may not be the last monthly one for the shale patch.

The outlook on oil demand remains the single most negative factor for oil price, with the latest blow in this respect being BP’s 2020 Energy Outlook, according to which oil demand may never return to pre-pandemic levels, meaning the peak in global oil consumption might have been reached last year.