高盛预计布伦特原油价格年底前将触及每桶49美元

据油价网2020年9月18日休斯敦报道，一直看好石油行情的全球历史最悠久和规模最大投资银行之一的高盛集团预计今年第4季前石油市场将出现每天大约300万桶原油的缺口，布兰特原油价格将从9月18日早些时候的每桶43美元反弹至今年年底的每桶49美元。

根据路透社刊登的一份来自高盛集团分析师的最新报告，全球最近的浮式石油储备更多地是“暂时的库存配置动态”，而不是新的供过于求的信号。

高盛集团分析师们表示：“我们估计，石油市场仍处于赤字状态，目前投机头寸处于过低水平。”高盛集团把今年年底前和明年第3季度前布伦特原油价格目标分别保持在每桶49美元和每桶65美元。

9月早些时候，高盛集团曾预测，布伦特原油价格在明年第3季度前将达到每桶65美元，不过明年年底可能会下跌至每桶58美元。

高盛集团还预计，WTI原油价格到明年第3季度前将上涨至每桶55.88美元，高于其此前预测的每桶51.38美元。

高盛集团分析师9月早些时候曾表示：“从明年春天开始，疫苗将广泛供应的可能性越来越大，这将有助于支撑全球经济增长和石油需求，尤其是航空燃料的需求。”高盛集团的分析师们至今仍持这种观点。

全球最大的独立石油交易商维多集团(Vitol Group)也预计，今年剩余时间里全球原油库存将继续下降，这与其竞争对手和许多分析师不同，后者认为市场供过于求的情况将越来越严重。

全球最大的独立原油贸易上维多集团首席执行官Russell Hardy近日在接受彭博社记者采访时表示，全球原油库存自今年夏初达到12亿桶峰值以来迄今已减少了大约3亿桶，预计9月至12月期间库存将再减少2.5亿 -3亿桶。

与另一家大型大宗商品交易商托克集团相比，维多集团似乎更看好石油的短期前景。托克集团预计，到今年年底，市场将呈现“以供应为主”的局面，随着需求复苏的停滞，到今年年底，全球石油库存将不断增加。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Bullish Goldman Sachs Expects Brent To Hit $49 By Year-End

Goldman Sachs is bullish on oil, expecting the market to be in a deficit of around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) by the fourth quarter and Brent Crude prices to recover to $49 a barrel by the end of this year, from $43 early on Friday.

According to a new report from Goldman analysts, carried by Reuters, the recent floating storage of oil is more "transient inventory allocation dynamics" instead of a signal of a new glut.

"We estimate that the oil market remains in deficit with speculative positioning now at too low levels," Goldman Sachs said, keeping its Brent Crude target at $49 by end-2020 and $65 by the third quarter of 2021.

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs forecast Brent Crude to reach $65 a barrel in the third quarter of 2021, although it could end next year lower, at $58 a barrel.

Goldman Sachs also expects WTI Crude to rally to $55.88 a barrel by the third quarter of 2021, up from $51.38 a barrel in earlier forecasts.

"There is a growing likelihood that vaccines will become widely available starting next spring, helping support global growth and oil demand, especially jet," the Goldman analysts said earlier this month, and are keeping that view.

Vitol Group, the world's largest independent oil trader, also expects global oil inventories to continue drawing down for the rest of the year, unlike its rivals and many analysts who see a growing glut on the market.

The world's stockpiles of oil have diminished by around 300 million barrels since peaking at 1.2 billion barrels early this summer, and are expected to decline by another 250 million-300 million barrels between September and December, Vitol's chief executive officer Russell Hardy told Bloomberg in an interview earlier this week.

Vitol looks more bullish on oil's short-term prospects than another major commodity trader, Trafigura, which expects a "supply-heavy" market through the end of the year, with inventories building by the end of 2020 as demand recovery stalls.