黄金和白银下跌 石油价格暴跌

据9月22日Investing.com报道，随着贝塔飓风登陆，石油价格一夜之间暴跌。石油产量重返国际市场，美元上涨，对新冠肺炎疫情的担忧给未来的消费前景蒙上阴影。随着石油市场基本面的迅速恢复，近期油价上涨带来的溢价被无情地暴露了出来。

布伦特原油下跌3.25%，至每桶41.65美元，盘中跌幅超过4.0%。唯一的利好消息是保持在了在每桶41.00美元的支撑位，100天均线保持得很好。目前阻力在每桶44美元这一遥远的关口。如果100天均线水平无法维持，将对关键支撑区每桶39.30美元至39.50美元带来考验。如果油价下跌，可能会大幅回调至每桶36.00美元。

西德克萨斯中质原油在其200天均线水平上回落，收盘时下跌2.70%，至每桶39.80美元。西德克萨斯中质油盘中一度跌至每桶38.70美元的低点，但在今天每桶38.40美元的100天均线水平上，WTI仍未能获得支撑。如果100-DMA价格下跌，油价回到9月份略高于每桶36.00美元的低点似乎是不可避免的。

美国飓风中心(US hurricane centre)网站显示，墨西哥湾似乎没有即将发生的天气事件，使这种风险溢价重新计入价格。随着亚洲其他市场的下跌，布伦特和WTI原油在亚洲市场都缩水了0.40%，欧佩克+可能会再次收到削减产量的呼吁。

金价和银价都在一夜之间暴跌，与股市大幅下跌的关联性似乎又回来了。黄金价格一度下跌68.00美元至1882.50美元/盎司，随后反弹至912.50美元/盎司，下跌1.95%。银价当日下跌2.50美元，至每盎司23.7美元，收盘下跌7.70%，至每盎司24.7185美元。

黄金的价格走势表明，在离开1905.00美元和1920.00美元之间的支撑位后，出现了一些止损。黄金复苏的另一个明显迹象是，买家会在这个价位上逢低买进。白银市场可能提供一些线索，因为与黄金相比，白银从低点反弹的幅度不大。

王佳晶 摘译自 Investing.com

原文如下：

Gold And Silver Fall, Oil Prices Collapse

Oil prices collapsed overnight, as Hurricane Beta made landfall as a tropical storm.Production returned to international markets, the US dollar rose, and Covid-19 worries clouded the future consumption picture. The hurricane premium built into the recent oil rally was brutally laid bare, with oil market fundamentals quickly reasserting themselves.

Brent crude fell 3.25% to USD41.65 a barrel, having been down over 4.0% intra-day. The only positive note was that support at USD41.00 a barrel, its 100-DMA, held perfectly. Resistance is now distant at USD44.00 a barrel. A failure of the 100-DMA opens up a test of the critical support region between USD39.30 and USD39.50 a barrel. A much deeper correction to USD36.00 a barrel could ensue if the latter gives way.

WTI fell back through its 200-DMA overnight, finishing the session 2.70% lower at USD39.80 a barrel as its weather premium evaporated. WTI fell as low at USD38.70 a barrel intra-day, during a torrid session, but managed to hold clear of support at its 100-DMA, today at USD38.40 a barrel. Should the 100-DMA fail, a return to the September lows just above USD36.00 a barrel seems inevitable.

Looking at the US hurricane centre’s website this morning, there appear to be no impending weather events in the Gulf of Mexico to add that risk premium back into prices. Both contracts have faded by 0.40% in Asia, following the rest of the markets lower. Without the benefit of wind-power, oils negative fundamentals look set to reassert themselves, even if other markets stage a recovery. OPEC+ may yet again receive a call to arms on production cuts.

The curse of being a leading reverse indicator for gold prices struck the author again overnight. Having said yesterday that gold’s balance of probabilities lay high, both it and silver prices crumbled overnight. The correlation to large negative moves in equities seemingly back with a vengeance.

Gold fell USD68.00 to USD1882.50 an ounce at one stage, before rallying to still finish 1.95% lower at USD912.50 an ounce. Silver had an even more torrid day, falling USD2.50 to USD23.7000 an ounce, finishing the day down 7.70% at USD24.7185 an ounce.

Gold’s price action suggests that more than a few stop-losses were executed after support between USD1905.00 and USD1920.00 gave way. Also evident by gold’s recovery is that buyers emerge to snaffle up some bargains at those levels. Whether they remain bargains or not, is still to be seen. Silver markets may give a clue as silver’s bounce of its lows was feeble in comparison to gold. That elegantly allows me to side-step, making another reverse leading indicator call.