美国页岩油日产量可能突破1300万桶再创新高

据天然气新闻2020年9月22日休斯敦报道，专家小组成员在9月22日举行的能源会议网络研讨会上表示，美国页岩油日产量可能达到2019年年底实现的超过1300万桶的新高，尽管要达到这个水平还需要油价在60美元/桶左右。

上游专家在雷斯塔能源公司2020年美洲虚拟年度峰会说，今年大部分时间和2021年缺乏钻井活动应该逐步把价格推高到重新启动钻井活动所需的WTI每桶60美元水平，WTI在低石油需求和低油价的双重威胁下已失去活力。

雷斯塔能源公司勘探开发研究副总裁Leslie Wei说：“如果供应要跟上需求，未来我们需要大量的页岩油。”“我们认为，未来需要从迄今尚未开钻的井中每天交付600万到1100万桶页岩油。”

他说，为了启动这一活动并重新启动新的页岩活动上升，“我们认为油价需要从目前的水平大幅恢复”。过去几周，油价已经回落到了每桶30多美元的中高水平。

他说，油价的好转应该会给页岩参与商提供必要的现金流，来重新开始投资该行业。

从2020年3月开始，由于勘探和生产运营商削减上游预算以及把钻井量降至最低水平，上游投资开始大幅下降，导致美国在用油气钻机数从3月初的大约835部下降了65%以上。

他说，今年美国的投资下降了50%，下降到了只有1000亿美元。

李峻 编译自 天然气新闻

原文如下：

US shale production can reach new highs beyond 13 million b/d, but needs $60/b: Rystad

US shale oil production can reach new highs beyond the 13 million b/d mark achieved in late 2019, although it will take oil prices of around $60/b for that to occur, panelists said at an energy conference webinar Sept. 22.

A dearth of well drilling for most of this year and into 2021 should gradually bring up prices to a level around $60/b WTI needed to restart activity, which has languished from the twin bogeys of low oil demand and low prices, upstream specialists said at the Rystad Energy 2020 Americas Virtual Annual Summit.

"If supply is to keep up with demand, we need a lot of shale volumes going forward," Leslie Wei, Rystad's vice president of E&P research, said. "We believe shale needs to deliver 6 million-11 million b/d from wells not yet drilled."

To unlock this activity and restart a new shale activity upcycle, "we believe oil prices need to recover significantly from today's levels," which in the last couple of weeks have dropped back into the mid-to-high $30s/b, Wei said.

Improvement in oil price should give shale players the required cash flows to start investing in the industry again, Wei said.

Upstream investment began to plummet in March 2020 from the pandemic as E&P operators slashed upstream budgets and reduced drilling to a minimum, causing the US oil and gas rig count to plummet more than 65% from its early March volume of around 835.

US investments dropped 50% to only $100 billion this year, Wei said.