交易商不敢放松对石油市场的监控

据9月27日FX Empire报道，由于疫苗研发成功与否和欧佩克减产具有很大的不确定性，石油市场极不稳定。

市场出现波动，美国西德克萨斯中质原油和国际基准布伦特原油期货价格上周收盘走低。在前一周的大规模空头回补反弹之后，没有出现任何重大消息，但一有悲观消息就足以限制涨幅，当然一有看涨消息，也足以支撑价格。

价格走势表明，石油可能会像7月和8月那样在价格较低的区间内进行交易。不过，随着全球冠状病毒疫情复发，预计需求将减少。

上周，12月WTI原油价格收于每桶40.51美元，下跌1.10美元，跌幅为2.64%，12月布伦特原油价格收于每桶42.41美元，下跌1.27美元，跌幅为2.99%。

要注意的是，市场对需求的担忧打压了价格。上周，冠状病毒感染病例的增加抑制了价格上涨。在欧洲和亚洲，冠状病毒感染的数量每天都在创记录，新的限制措施正在实施，这可能会限制出行和燃料需求。

印度的情况也在恶化。由于冠状病毒病例激增阻碍了工业和运输活动，燃料需求减弱，该国8月份炼油厂的产量较上年同期下降了26.4%，为四个月来最大降幅。而且这些问题也不是欧洲和亚洲独有的。在美国，上周初失业金领取人数意外上升，透露出经济复苏的乏力，燃料需求减少。

世界最大石油消费国美国的新冠肺炎感染病例在增加。中西部地区的病例再次出现，而今年春季遭受重创的纽约市也正在考虑延长出行限制期限。

出行限制可能是交易员近期最担心的问题，尤其是对航空公司来说，旅游业受严重冲击，今年以来，从未真正从病毒的第一波浪潮中缓过神。

上周公布的政府数据显示，四周汽油平均需求较上年同期下降9%。由于冠状病毒数量的增加减缓了经济复苏，短期内需求可能会继续减弱。

从供应方面来看，上周的政府库存报告来看是看涨的，但这并没有推高本周的价格。这进一步证明，需求是主要问题。

EIA数据显示，截至9月18日当周，美国原油、汽油和馏分油库存均下降。原油库存减少160万桶，低于预期；汽油库存下降400万桶，降幅超过预期;而馏分油库存则意外减少340万桶。

尽管欧佩克+正尽最大努力通过大规模减产来限制全球供应，并且表示，如果有需要，还可以扩大减产规模，但如果利比亚向市场输送更多石油，就可能会出现问题。

预计，只要全球新冠肺炎病例数量继续上升，短期内贸易就会减少，而最大的担忧将是美国、欧洲和亚洲再度出台出行限制措施。

其他可能打压油价的因素是美元走强，这会减少外国对以美元计价的原油的需求。这与美国经济的实力是紧密相连的。

王佳晶 摘译自 FX Empire

原文如下：

Oil Price Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Traders Centered on COVID-19 as Rising Global Cases Keep Lid on Prices

The wild cards are the coronavirus vaccine and the OPEC+ production cuts. A vaccine will reduce the number of cases and ease restrictions.

U. S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures finished lower last week while posting inside moves. The chart pattern indicates investor indecision and impending volatility. The fundamentals also supported the inside trade. There wasn’t any blockbuster news following the previous week’s massive short-covering rally, but just enough bearish news to cap gains and bullish news to underpin prices.

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The price action also indicates we could be in for a rangebound trade just like the one we saw in July and August albeit at lower prices. The rangebound trade reflects similar fundamentals. The lower prices, however, indicate expectations of lower demand due to a resurgence in global coronavirus cases.

Last week, December WTI crude oil settled at $40.51, down $1.10 or -2.64% and December Brent crude oil finished at $42.41, down $1.27 or -2.99%.

Demand Concerns Weigh on Prices

Rising coronavirus cases helped put a lid on prices last week. In Europe and Asia, daily increases of coronavirus infections are hitting records and new restrictions are being put in place that will likely limit travel and fuel demand.

The situation is also worsening in India where throughput by crude oil refiners in August fell 26.4% from a year ago, the most in four months, as fuel demand ebbed because surging coronavirus cases hindered industrial and transport activity.

And the problems are not isolated in Europe and Asia either. In the United States, unemployment claims unexpectedly rose last week suggesting an economic recovery is sputtering and pushing down fuel demand.

Infections are also rising in the U.S., the world’s top oil consumer. We’re seeing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the Midwest, while New York City, which was hit hardest in the spring, is considering renewed shutdown mandates.

Travel constraints are likely to be the biggest concern for traders over the near-term. Since the travel industry – especially airlines – never really recovered from the first wave of the virus.

Government data showed last week that the four-week average of gasoline demand was 9% below a year earlier. Demand is likely to weaken over the near-term because the increasing coronavirus numbers are slowing the economic recovery.

Don’t Forget About Supply

By all means and measures, last week’s government inventories report was bullish, but that didn’t drive prices higher for the week. This is further evidence that demand is the major concern.

U. S. crude, gasoline and distillate inventories all fell the week-ending September 18, EIA data showed. Crude inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels, less than forecast; gasoline stocks dropped more than expected, sliding by 4 million barrels; while distillate stockpiles posted a surprise drawdown of 3.4 million barrels.

Although OPEC+ is doing its best to curtail global supply with its massive production cuts, and could do more if called upon, there could be a problem if Libya brings more oil to the market.

Weekly Forecast

We’re expecting a sideways-to-lower trade over the near-term as long as the number of COVID-19 cases continue to rise worldwide. On the downside, the biggest concern will be renewed restrictions in the U.S., Europe and Asia.

Other factors that could weigh on prices is a stronger U.S. Dollar that tends to reduce foreign demand for dollar-denominated crude oil. This goes hand in hand with the strength of the U.S. economy.