天然气市场将主导美国能源结构数十年

据今日油价网站9月26日消息 天然气最初被誉为过去化石燃料和未来可再生能源之间的桥梁，后来遭到了抨击，因为尽管天然气比石油和煤炭更清洁，但并不是完全无排放。根据能源市场顾问公司的一份新报告，天然气将在20年后主导美国的能源结构。

这种持续主导地位的原因很简单，即使对太阳能和风能等可再生能源的最强硬支持者来说，这些理由可能会令人不快。天然气不仅价格便宜，而且其供应也是连续不断。重要的是，它不需要像太阳能和风能那样需要电池储存，这就增加了这种装置的总成本，即使其他成本正在下降。

报告称，这些成本的下降无疑将为北美地区更多的太阳能和风能重能源组合铺平道路，而煤炭则被遗忘，部分原因是其经济状况恶化。到2044年，现有的煤炭发电能力将减少近一半。与此同时，太阳能发电量将从今年的60吉瓦增长到2044年的约250吉瓦，呈现惊人的四倍增长。风能也将从现在的115吉瓦增长到2044年的191吉瓦，尽管增长幅度较小，但天然气会主导一切。

到目前为止，天然气占北美能源生产的41%。据日立ABB旗下能源市场顾问公司预测，2044年，天然气将占43%。与太阳能和风能的爆炸性增长相比，这似乎并不特别令人印象深刻。然而，值得注意的是，即使在这种几乎没有增长的情况下，天然气将成为推动北美发电量最大部分的燃料，这意味着化石燃料时代还远未结束。

王磊 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Natural Gas Will Rule The US Energy Market For Decades

Natural gas was first hailed as the bridge between the fossil fuel past and the renewable future. Then it came under fire because although cleaner than oil and coal, it is not entirely emission-free. But according to a new report from Energy Market Advisors, it will rule the energy mix of the United States even 20 years from now.

The reasons for this continued dominance are simple enough even if they may be unpleasant for the most hard-line supporters of renewables such as solar and wind. Gas is not only cheap, but its supply is also continuous, so, importantly, it does not need battery storage the way solar and wind do, which increases the total costs of such installations even if other costs are falling, which they are.

These falling costs will undoubtedly pave the way to much more solar- and wind-heavy energy mix across North America, while coal sinks into oblivion, partly driven by its worse economics, the report said. By 2044, close to half of the existing coal power generation capacity will be gone. At the same time, solar will grow from 60 GW this year to some 250 GW in 2044 – an impressive fourfold growth. Wind will grow, too, albeit more modestly, from 115 GW today to 191 GW in 2044. But gas will rule them all.

To date, natural gas accounts for some 41 percent of North American energy generation. In 2044, according to Energy Market Advisors, a division of Hitachi ABB, gas will account for 43 percent. This, compared with the explosive growth seen in solar and wind, does not seem particularly impressive. The thing to remember is, however, that even with this almost absent growth, gas will be the fuel driving the biggest portion of power generation in North America. And this means that the fossil fuel era is far from over, really.