美国天然气价格主要走势将由LNG需求决定

据10月9日FX Empire报道，天然气期货价格周五小幅走高，因为越来越多的人认为Delta飓风对当地液化天然气生产的影响将很小。交易员们正在密切关注这一情况，因为一个终端一旦受到直接打击，可能会让它在一段时间内无法使用，这将削减液化天然气需求，而在冬季需求季节到来之前，液化天然气需要考虑到储量问题。

格林尼治标准时间9点58分，12月天然气期货价格为3.164美元，上涨0.015美元，涨幅为0.48%。

EIA报告称，截至10月2日的这个周末，美国国内天然气供应量增加了750亿立方英尺。分析师预计将增长710亿立方英尺。政府称，目前总库存为3.831万亿立方英尺，较去年增加4440亿立方英尺，比五年平均水平高出3940亿立方英尺。

NGI在EIA储存报告发布前称，分析师预估增幅在700亿立方英尺左右。接受彭博社调查的7位分析师给出的预测为670亿至850亿立方英尺，中位数为730亿立方英尺。《华尔街日报》的一项调查也得出了同样的结果，但调查的中值为740亿立方英尺。路透社调查的预估中值为730亿立方英尺，NGI认为将达到750亿立方英尺。

EIA报告看跌，但交易商关注Delta飓风及其对液化天然气需求的可能影响。液化天然气设施遭受直接打击造成损害，将导致产量和船运减少，可能对价格产生看跌影响。如果飓风没有来袭，而且设施没有受损，航运也没有延误，那么价格可能会因为预期更高的需求而上涨。

目前，需要液化天然气的强劲需求和取暖需求的共同作用，才能在大约一个月的时间内避免库存问题。

王佳晶 摘译自 FX Empire

原文如下：

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Next Major Move Determined by LNG Demand

Natural gas futures are inching higher on Friday on increasing bets that the impact of Hurricane Delta will be minimal on liquefied natural gas production in the region. Traders are monitoring the situation closely because a direct hit on a facility could put it out of commission for some time. This would cut into LNG demand, which is needed to prevent storage issues before the winter demand season.

At 09:58 GMT, December natural gas futures are trading $3.164, up $0.015 or +0.48%.

US Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

The U.S. EIA reported Thursday that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 75 billion cubic feet for the week-ended October 2. On average, analysts forecast an increase of 71 billion cubic feet. Total stocks now stand at 3.831 trillion cubic feet, up 444 billion cubic feet from a year ago, and 394 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government said.

NGI reported ahead of the EIA storage report that analyst estimates hovered around a build in the low to mid-70s Bcf. The seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg responded with estimates ranging from 67 Bcf to 85 Bcf, with a median of 73 Bcf. A Wall Street Journal poll had the same range but arrived at a median of 74 Bcf. A Reuters poll with the same range of projections had a median of 73 Bcf. NGI pegged the build at 75 Bcf.

Daily Forecast

The EIA report was bearish, but traders are focusing on Hurricane Delta and its possible impact on LNG demand.

A direct hit of an LNG facility that causes damage could exert a bearish influence on prices because it will curtail production and shipping.

If Hurricane Delta misses and there is no damage to facilities or any delays in shipping then prices could rise because of expectations of higher demand.

At this time, it’s going to take a combination of strong LNG demand and heating demand to prevent storage problems in about a month.