近年来欧佩克成员国一直在争夺市场份额

据今日油价10月9日报道，实际上，沙特阿美刚刚宣布，该公司不相信石油需求会出现峰值，并计划在长期内加倍努力提高石油产量，以击败竞争对手，尽管许多公司承诺在低碳能源方面进行重大投资。

沙特阿美表示:“我们预计，在人口增长和经济增长的推动下，从长期来看，石油需求将继续增长，而燃料和石化产品将支持需求增长……有关石油需求即将见顶的猜测，根本不符合石油消费的现实。”

天然气市场的状况也好不到哪里去，因为天然气和石油生产商在同一战壕。最大的液化天然气出口国卡塔尔最近宣布，将继续推进其大规模的液化天然气(LNG)产能扩张，押注其能通过降低生产成本和联合生产凝析油和液化石油气(LPG)击败其他液化天然气生产国。

世界上最大的石油公司沙特阿美，正通过加倍投资石油来抵御历史上最严重的石油需求崩溃所造成的危机。该公司决心在石油需求达到峰值时度过难关，并从其投资组合和沙特剩余石油储备中赚取利润。

与许多大型国际石油公司不同，这家沙特巨头没有承诺转向低碳能源或净零排放。该公司的核心业务是在沙特阿拉伯开采低成本石油，只要世界需要石油，它就会一直这样下去。

但就像石油巨头一样，沙特阿美也会听取股东的意见。值得注意的是，沙特阿拉伯王国是沙特阿美的主要股东，拥有压倒性的98%的股份，即使在去年大肆炒作的首次公开募股之后，沙特阿拉伯王国仍在继续影响公司的战略、税收、股利政策，甚至是石油生产水平。毕竟，沙特阿拉伯是欧佩克和欧佩克+生产协定的领导人。

今年油价暴跌后，沙特阿美的收入和利润下降，债务飙升，这也是由于收购了石油化工巨头沙特基础工业公司。不过全球所有石油公司都受到了石油价格暴跌的影响，因此财政状况的恶化一点也不奇怪。

对大型石油公司而言，疫情造成的损失已令股价承压，并加大了投资者要求减排的呼声。对沙特阿美来说，利润的降低和债务的增加对沙特整个经济以及王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)利用沙特获得的石油收入实现沙特2030年经济多元化的计划都造成直接打击。

沙特阿美目前正在努力控制危机造成的损失，同时遵守向股东每年发放750亿美元股息的承诺。该公司已经削减了资本支出(capex)，据报道，随着现金流和利润的减少以及债务的增加，该公司正在考虑进一步削减资本支出。

沙特阿美在第二季度财报中预测，2020年资本支出将在250亿至300亿美元之间。今年8月，英国《金融时报》曾报道称，沙特阿美正考虑进一步削减资本支出，以支付其巨额股息。

在本周公布的一次采访中，沙特阿美首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔（Amin Nasser）表示，这家石油巨头目前正寻求优化其投资组合，并从中“挤出”更多价值，包括可能出售资产。

纳赛尔表示:“我们将正确地做这件事，并将确保公司执行的事情符合我们的长期愿景——保留我们核心业务的战略，以及与我们的合作伙伴可以优化的战略。将专注于增长机遇，同时进一步强化战略重点，优化投资组合，从而为股东创造最大价值。"

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

For years, if not decades, OPEC members have been jousting for market share, which is, of course, the reason why the latest Saudi-Russia oil price war happened in the first place.

Indeed, Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Aramco has just declared that it does not believe in peak oil demand and plans to double down on boosting oil production in the long term to beat its competitors despite many pledging significant investments in low-carbon energy.

Aramco has said: “We expect oil demand growth to continue in the long term, driven by rising populations and economic growth. Fuels and petrochemicals will support demand growth ... speculation about an imminent peak in oil demand is simply not consistent with the realities of oil consumption.”

The natural gas market is not much better off, with producers treading on the same path as their oil brethren.

Qatar, the biggest LNG exporter, recently announced that it will go ahead with its massive liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity expansion by betting that it can beat other LNG producers through low production costs and co-production of condensates and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

The world's largest oil company, state-held Saudi Aramco, is looking to withstand the crisis created by the worst oil demand crash in history—by doubling down on oil.

Saudi Aramco is determined to outlast peak oil demand—whenever this occurs—and to squeeze every dollar it can from its portfolio and from Saudi Arabia's remaining oil reserves.

Unlike many major international oil companies, the Saudi state giant is not pledging a shift to low-carbon energy or net-zero emissions. Its core business is pumping low-cost oil in Saudi Arabia, and it will remain such for as long as the world needs oil.

But just like Big Oil, Saudi Aramco listens to its shareholders. The caveat is that Aramco's majority shareholder with an overwhelming 98 percent is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which—even after the much-hyped IPO last year—continues to influence the company's strategy, taxation, dividend policy, and even the level of oil production. After all, Saudi Arabia is the leader of OPEC and of the OPEC+ production pact.

After the price crash this year, Aramco's revenues and profits dropped, and debt soared, also because of the acquisition of petrochemicals giant SABIC. The worsening of the finances was no surprise at all, considering that every oil company in the world suffered from the collapse in oil prices, created by the pandemic and by Saudi Arabia itself, which flooded the market with oil with record-high exports in April when global demand was crashing by 20 million barrels per day (bpd).

For Big Oil, losses in the pandemic have weighed on share prices and have intensified calls from investors for emissions reductions. For Aramco, the lower profits and higher debts are a direct hit to the whole economy of Saudi Arabia and to the plans of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to diversify the Kingdom's economy 2030, by using the oil money Saudi Arabia gets.

Damage Control

Aramco is now trying to contain the damage from this year's crisis, while keeping the pledge to pay out annual dividends of US$75 billion to shareholders, the Kingdom being the largest of them.

The Saudi oil giant has cut capital expenditure (capex) and is reportedly looking at further cuts amid reduced cash flows and profits and mounting debt to levels above the company's targets.

Aramco guided in the Q2 results release for capex at the lower end of the US$25 billion-US$30 billion range for 2020. In August, the Financial Times reported that Aramco was considering additional cuts to its capex in order to be able to pay its massive dividends, the vast majority of which goes to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

The oil giant is now looking to optimize its portfolio and "squeeze" more value out of it, including by potentially selling assets, Aramco's chief executive Amin Nasser told Energy Intelligence in an interview published this week.

"We're going to do it right and will make sure what's executed by this organization is in line with our long-term view -- the strategy of retaining our core businesses in-house and what can be optimized with our partner," Nasser told Energy Intelligence.

Two months ago, Aramco created a Corporate Development unit, which "will focus on growth opportunities as we further sharpen and strengthen our strategic focus to optimize our portfolio and, in doing so, maximize value for our shareholders," Nasser said at the time.