石油贸易巨头们预计油价明年年底前将不会上涨

据油价网伦敦报道，一些世界上最大的独立石油贸易商的高管预计全球石油需求在未来6至9个月内不会大幅提高，相反，他们预计油价在明年年中前仍将停留在一个狭窄的40美元左右的范围内。

大宗商品贸易巨头维多集团、摩科瑞集团和贡沃尔集团的高管日前在英国《金融时报》大宗商品全球峰会上表示，他们对短期内的全球石油需求复苏并不乐观。

路透社援引全球最大独立石油贸易商维多集团首席执行官罗塞尔·哈迪在峰会上的讲话称，他预计全球石油需求在2021年夏季之前将保持平稳，并对油价持“温和预期”。

哈迪本人在数周前似乎相当看好全球石油库存的减少。哈迪在9月中旬曾对彭博社表示，全球石油库存自今夏初见峰值12亿桶以来已减少了大约3亿桶，预计9月至12月间将再减少2.5 -3亿桶。

维多集团执行委员会成员克里斯·巴克不久前在海湾情报的每周能源播客上说，由于COVID-19、经济、货币刺激和石油需求的“巨大不确定性“，全球未来石油需求看起来更加不确定。

摩科瑞集团首席执行官马尔科·杜南在英国《金融时报》大宗商品全球峰会上表示，他认为全球石油需求在未来几年都不会恢复到危机前的水平，并预计未来6个月油价将大致维持在每桶45美元左右。

贡沃尔集团首席执行官托尔比约恩?托恩奎斯特也认为，油价在2021年中期之前将保持在每桶40美元左右的水平上。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

The World's Largest Oil Traders Don't Expect Prices To Rise Until 2021

The top executives at some of the world’s largest independent oil traders do not expect global oil demand to materially improve over the next six to nine months—Instead, they expect oil prices to remain stuck in a narrow range in the $40s at least until the middle of 2021.

The senior executives at commodity trading giants Vitol, Mercuria, and Gunvor are not optimistic about the demand recovery in the near term, they said at the FT Commodities Global Summit on Tuesday.

Russell Hardy, chief executive at the biggest independent oil trader in the world, Vitol Group, expects global oil demand to stay flat until the summer of 2021, and has “modest expectations” about oil prices, Reuters quoted Hardy as telling the summit.

Hardy himself appeared quite bullish on oil inventories drawing down two weeks ago. The world’s stockpiles of oil have diminished by around 300 million barrels since peaking at 1.2 billion barrels early this summer, and are expected to decline by another 250 million-300 million barrels between September and December, Hardy told Bloomberg in mid-September.

This weekend, Vitol’s executive committee member Chris Bake said on Gulf Intelligence’s weekly energy podcast that demand is looking more uncertain amid a “huge amount of uncertainty” about COVID-19, economies, monetary stimulus, and oil demand.

Mercuria’s CEO Marco Dunand said on the FT summit on Tuesday that he doesn’t see oil demand recovering to the pre-crisis levels for a few years, and expects oil prices to remain broadly flat around $45 per barrel over the next six months.

Torbj?rn T?rnqvist, chief executive at Gunvor, also sees oil prices staying in the $40s until the middle of 2021.