欧佩克称石油需求将在2030年末趋于平稳

据离岸工程网站10月8日消息 欧佩克周四表示，世界石油需求将在2030年末趋于平稳，届时需求可能已开始下降，这对产油国来说是一个重大转变，反映了冠状病毒危机对经济和消费者习惯的持久影响。

欧佩克在其《2020年世界石油展望》中做出上述预测之际，越来越多的其他预测认为，疫情可能会成为石油需求峰值的临界点。

欧佩克表示，2030年石油使用量将从2020年的9070万桶/日增至1.072亿桶/日，比去年的2030年预测低110万桶/日，比2007年预测的2030年需求量低1000多万桶/日。全球石油需求将在预测期的第一部分以相对健康的速度增长，下半年需求将趋于平稳。该报告称，报告着眼于2019-2045年的时间跨度。

“由于与COVID-19相关的停产事件及其对全球经济和消费者行为的影响挥之不去，未来的需求可能会持续低于过去的预测。”

随着经济复苏，用于汽车、卡车和工业的石油使用量将反弹，但欧佩克表示担忧，未来的增长可能会被大流行后的家庭工作和电话会议转向通勤、效率提高和转向电动汽车等因素所抵消。

甚至在疫情之前，西方国家日益高涨的气候激进主义和日益广泛的替代燃料使用，使长期石油需求的强度受到了更多的关注。尽管欧佩克下调了其预测，但仍有增长。

今年，考虑到电动汽车的普及速度加快、燃油效率提高以及流感大流行后商务和休闲旅行的大幅减少等发展趋势，预计2030年后需求将开始下降。

欧佩克表示，这种情况，即加速政策和技术案例，并非基于任何重大技术突破，也不代表完全有可能减少需求。

欧佩克表示：“能源效率措施的实施还有很大的空间，这可能会将未来的石油需求压低到更低的水平。”

吴恒磊 编译自 离岸工程

原文如下：

OPEC Says Oil Demand to Plateau in Late 2030s

World oil demand will plateau in the late 2030s and could by then have begun to decline, OPEC said on Thursday, in a major shift for the producer group that reflects the lasting impact of the coronavirus crisis on the economy and consumer habits.

The prediction from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, made in its 2020 World Oil Outlook, comes amid a growing number of other forecasts that the pandemic may prove the tipping point for peak oil demand.

Oil use will rise to 107.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2030 from 90.7 million bpd in 2020, OPEC said, 1.1 million bpd below its 2030 forecast last year and over 10 million bpd below its 2007 prediction of 2030 demand. "Global oil demand will grow at relatively healthy rates during the first part of the forecast period before demand plateaus during the second half," said the report, which looks at the 2019-2045 timespan.

"Future demand will likely remain persistently below past projections due to the lingering effects of the COVID-19-related shutdowns and their impact on the global economy and consumer behavior."

While oil use to fuel cars, trucks, and industry will rebound as economies recover, OPEC voiced concern future growth may be partly offset by factors like a post-pandemic shift to homeworking and teleconferencing over commuting, as well as efficiency improvements and a shift to electric cars.

Even before the pandemic, rising climate activism in the West and widening use of alternative fuels were putting the strength of long-term oil demand under more scrutiny. Despite scaling back its forecasts, OPEC had still seen growth.

This year, it also sees potential for demand to begin to decline after 2030 given developments like a faster adoption of electric cars, more fuel efficiency, and a larger reduction in business and leisure travel after the pandemic.

This scenario, the Accelerated Policy, and Technology case, is not based on any major technological breakthroughs, OPEC said, nor does it represent the full demand reduction possible.

"There is ample scope for far larger implementation of energy efficiency measures, which could potentially depress future oil demand to much lower levels," OPEC said.