临时性供应冲击使原油价格从高位回落

据雅虎财经网站10月9日消息：周五纽约早盘原油价格从隔夜高点下滑，但本周仍将上涨近10%，这要归功于墨西哥湾和挪威的生产中断，以及欧佩克及其盟友将在年底搁置增产计划。

截至美国东部时间上午9:25(格林威治时间13:25)，美国原油期货下跌0.3%，至每桶41.07美元，而国际市场布伦特原油下跌0.3%，至每桶43.20美元。两者都在一夜之间创下了两周多以来的最高水平。

与此同时，美国汽油RBOB期货下跌1.8%，至每桶1.2094美元。

飓风“德尔塔”目前正在接近路易斯安那州海岸，作为预防措施，墨西哥湾90％以上的产量(每天近200万桶)已经停产。

此外，挪威石油工人的罢工将持续到第二周，可能导致该国产量减少四分之一。

Rystad Energy石油市场主管Bjornar Tonhaugen称，“油价已连续一周大幅上涨。然而，本周的收益并不是由长期存在的因素造成的，它们只能在短期内持续。抑制美国产量的飓风将会消退，产量将会再次上升，挪威的罢工也是如此。”

由于需求形势不断恶化，西德克萨斯中质原油40美元/桶以上的价格水平“像玻璃一样脆弱”。而获得根本支持的最大希望在于欧佩克及其盟友进一步实行产量约束。

因全球需求疲软，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯都在考虑推迟原定于明年初的增产计划。

俄罗斯并未严格遵守8月达成的欧佩克+协议规定的生产配额，这种情况可能会使任何新的协议复杂化，从而扩大了当前的产量限制。

冯娟 摘译自 雅虎财经

原文如下：

Crude Oil Retreats from Highs as Supply Shocks Seen Temporary

Crude oil prices slipped from overnight highs in early trade in New York on Friday but remained on course for gains of nearly 10% this week, thanks to production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico and Norway – and to hopes that OPEC and its allies will shelve their plans to raise output at the end of the year.

By 9:25 AM ET (1325 GMT), U.S. crude futures were down 0.3% at $41.07 a barrel, while the international marker Brent was down 0.3% at $43.20 a barrel. Both had hit their highest levels in over two weeks overnight.

U.S. Gasoline RBOB futures, meanwhile, were down 1.8% at $1.2094 a barrel.

Hurricane Delta is currently approaching the Louisiana coast, having already caused over 90% of production in the Gulf of Mexico – nearly 2 million barrels a day – to shut down as a precaution.

In addition, a strike by Norwegian oil workers is set to extend into a second week, threatening to cut the country’s output by a quarter.

“Oil has enjoyed a week of impressive gains,” Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets Bjornar Tonhaugen said in e-mailed comments. “Yet this week’s gains are not caused by factors that are here to stay and they are only sustainable for a short period of time. Hurricanes that curb production in the U.S. will subside and output will rise again, and the same applies with strikes in Norway.”

Tonhaugen said that price levels in WTI above $40 a barrel are “as fragile as glass nowadays” due to the worsening demand picture: spreading coronavirus infections in Europe, in particular, are translating into lower levels of driving activity, while London Mayor Sadiq Khan warned that a fresh lockdown in the U.K. capital is “inevitable”.

The best hope for fundamental support arguably lies in further output discipline from OPEC and its allies. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier in the week that both Saudi Arabia and Russia, the biggest of its non-OPEC partners, were looking at postponing an increase in output that is scheduled for the start of next year, owing to weak global demand.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told local media on Friday that “we need to keep our finger on the pulse, we need to cooperate…to create normal market conditions.”

However, a report by S&P Global Platts earlier Friday showed that Russia had not kept strictly to its production quota under the current OPEC+ deal in August, a development that may complicate any fresh deal to extend the current output restraint.