欧佩克：全球石油需求到2040年将保持增加

据俄罗斯油气网维也纳报道，总部位于维也纳的欧佩克日前在其《2020年世界石油展望》报告中概述了其对全球经济、石油和能源需求的中长期预期。该展望报告预测的时间首次延长至2045年。

报告说：“人们将记住2020年，主要是因为Covid-19无所不在，其规模和涉及范围史无前例。从能源角度来看，经济衰退导致的能源和石油需求出现了人们记忆中最严重的下滑。”

报告说，全球石油需求预计将从2019年的近1亿桶/天增加到2045年的大约1.09亿桶/天。在经济合作与发展组织(OECD)国家，石油需求预计将在2022-2025年间保持在每天大约4700万桶的稳定水平上，到2045年将开始下降到每天3500万桶。相比之下，非经合组织国家的需求预计将在预测期间增加2250万桶/天，从2019年的近5200万桶/天增加到2045年的7400万桶/天。

报告称，到2045年，石油在全球能源结构中仍将占最大的贡献(27%)，其次是天然气(25%)和煤炭(20%)。其他可再生能源——主要包括太阳能、风能和地热能——平均每年增长6.6%，明显快于其他任何能源。

欧佩克的报告表示，到2045年，全球石油行业的上游、中游、下游合计需要12.6万亿美元的投资。未来数年仍将需要石油，即使长期需求停滞，石油仍将是全球能源结构中的重要组成部分。

欧佩克预计，到2045年，全球人口将增至近95亿，全球运输和工业部门对化石燃料的需求也将持续增加到2045年。

疫情爆发导致了人们记忆中最严重的能源和石油需求下滑。尽管2020年出现了大幅下降，但全球一次性能源需求预计在中长期内将继续增长，到2045年期间将大幅增加25%。

欧佩克报告称：“由于新冠肺炎疫情大流行导致的停产及其对全球经济和消费者行为的影响，全球未来的石油需求可能会持续低于过去的预测。”欧佩克预计，全球石油需求将在2022年恢复并超过2019年的水平。

李峻 编译自 俄罗斯油气网

原文如下：

OPEC: Global oil demand will keep rising until around 2040

In its 2020 World Oil Outlook, for the 1st time extended to 2045, the Vienna-based cartel outlined its medium to long-term expectations for the global economy, oil and energy demand.

“The year 2020 will be remembered primarily for the omnipresence, as well as unprecedented scale and reach, of the Covid-19. From an energy point of view, the lockdown-induced economic recession has resulted in the sharpest downturn in energy and oil demand in living memory,” OPEC said in the report.

Globally, oil demand is projected to increase from nearly 100 mb/d in 2019 to around 109 mb/d in 2045. In OECD countries, oil demand is expected to plateau at around 47 mb/d during the period 2022-2025 before starting a longer-term decline towards 35 mb/d by 2045. In contrast, demand in non-OECD countries is projected to rise by 22.5 mb/d over the forecast period, from nearly 52 mb/d in 2019 to 74 mb/d in 2045.

According to the report, oil would remain the largest contributor to the energy mix through to 2045 (27%), followed by gas (25%) and coal (20%). Other renewables – combining mainly solar, wind and geothermal energy – will grow by 6.6% p.a. on average, significantly faster than any other source of energy.

The global oil sector will need cumulative investment of $12.6 trillion in the upstream, midstream and downstream through to 2045. “Oil will be needed for years to come, and even if demand plateaus in the long term, it will remain a key fixture in the energy mix,” OPEC ’s report said.

OPEC expects the global population will increase to almost 9.5 billion by 2045, demand for fossil fuels in the global transport and industrial sectors will also continue to grow through 2045.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the sharpest downturn in energy and oil demand in living memory. Despite the large drop in 2020, global primary energy demand is forecast to continue growing in the medium- and long-term, increasing by a significant 25% in the period to 2045.

“Future demand will likely remain persistently below past projections due to the lingering effects of the pandemic-related shutdowns and their impact on the global economy and consumer behaviour,” the Opec report said. The cartel sees global oil demand returning and exceeding 2019 levels in 2022.