德勤：今年全球能源行业的3个主要趋势

据TABNI网站贝鲁特报道，全球4大会计师事务所之一的德勤会计师事务所日前发布了受新冠肺炎疫情影响的能源行业的油气、电力和公用事业以及可再生能源的年中展望，重点强调了可能影响今年剩余时间全球能源行业的3个主要趋势。

在一个习惯于经济和大宗商品价格周期涨跌的行业里，2020年对油气公司构成了巨大挑战。尽管现实情况正在迅速改变，但德勤会计师事务所的新报告为充满挑战的2021年打下了基础，并为本世纪20年代初期至中期出现初步复苏奠定了基础。

主要趋势：

1．油气公司在石油市场大压缩期间都在寻找下一个常态

2．全球天然气市场需要适应“更持久的更低价格”

3．油气公司面对低油价和能源转型平衡短期和长期优先顺序

电力和公用事业行业——需要关注增长机会

电力和公用事业行业以一个强劲姿态开始了新的十年，在引领整个经济的清洁能源转型的同时，发现新的增长机会。但就在几个月后的疫情爆发，并以新的方式考验了一个能够抵御危机的部门的勇气。

德勤会计师事务所在今年年初确定的3个主要趋势的前景似乎已发生显著变化。

首先，由于可再生能源在电力需求中所占比例突然上升，一个原本在气候目标上提高了门槛的行业现在似乎准备更快跨过这一门槛。其次，为了确保电网在移动过程中的稳定性，可再生能源丰富的负荷将很可能需要以一种需求响应(DR)的形式从分散式能源资源(DER)中获得更大的灵活性。第三，由新冠肺炎疫情大流行导致的破坏强化了该行业专注3个增长领域的理由：数字转型、新服务和并购机会。

简而言之，疫情可能催化了由油气行业主导的清洁能源转型，同时为有关分散式能源资源和增长机会的战略决策提供了紧迫性。

可再生能源——短期干扰，长期前景乐观

2020年伊始，可再生能源行业正准备进入一个新的增长阶段，这个增长主要是由不断增长的客户需求、成本竞争力、创新和合作驱动的。但在短短几个月内，疫情大流行就在整个可再生能源行业造成了重大破坏。

在跟踪行业对这种不确定性的反应时，有3个主要趋势值得关注：市场转型、电网弹性以及创新和协作。尽管短期内存在明显的不利因素，但可再生能源行业的长期前景仍然乐观，因为可再生能源行业建立在过去几年实现的大规模经济规模之上。

德勤会计师事务所能源资源及工业主管Bart Cornelissen评论道：“在这个前所未有的时代里，油气公司高管需要对笼罩2020年前景的许多风险和不确定性保持警惕，同时准备好迎接在不断变化的市场环境中盈利增长的新机遇。”

李峻 编译自 TABNI.com

原文如下：

Three key trends for energy sector in 2020: Deloitte

Professional services firm Deloitte has released its mid-year outlooks for the Covid-hit energy industry sectors of oil and gas, power and utilities, and renewable energy, highlighting three key trends that could shape the rest of 2020.

In an industry used to the highs and lows of economic and commodity price cycles, 2020 poses great challenges to oil and gas companies. While the facts on the ground are changing rapidly, the new Deloitte report sets the ground for a challenging 2021 and a nascent recovery in the early-to-mid 2020s.

Key trends:

1. Companies are looking for the next normal in the oil market during the Great Compression

2. Need for adapting to “lower for longer” in the global natural gas markets

3. Companies balancing short- and long-term priorities in the face of low oil prices and the energy transition

Power and utilities – the need to focus on growth opportunities

The power and utilities industry started the new decade in a strong position, identifying new opportunities for growth while leading the economy-wide clean energy transition. But just months later, the Covid-19 pandemic struck and tested the mettle of a crisis-resilient sector in new ways.

The outlook for three trends identified by Deloitte at the beginning of 2020 seems to have markedly changed. First, an industry that was raising the bar on climate goals now appears poised to vault that bar sooner thanks to a raised floor, as renewables abruptly acquired a higher share of electricity demand. Second, ensuring grid stability amid shifting, renewables-rich loads will likely require more demand-side flexibility from distributed energy resources (DER) in the form of demand response (DR). Third, pandemic-related disruptions have strengthened the case for the industry to focus on three growth areas: digital transformation, new services, and M&A opportunities.

In short, Covid-19 may have catalyzed the industry-led clean energy transition while lending urgency to strategic decisions about distributed energy resources and growth opportunities.

Renewable energy – short-term disruption with positive long-term outlook

As 2020 began, the renewable energy industry was just preparing to enter a new phase of growth driven largely by increasing customer demand, cost competitiveness, innovation, and collaboration. But within a few months, the Covid-19 pandemic caused major disruption across the sector.

While tracking the industry’s response to this uncertainty, there are three key trends to watch: market transformation, grid resiliency, and innovation and collaboration. Despite significant short-term headwinds, the long-term outlook for the renewable energy industry remains positive as it builds on the massive economies of scale achieved over the past few years.

Bart Cornelissen, Monitor Deloitte, Energy, Resources & Industrials Leader, Managing Partner, commented: “Amid these unprecedented times, company executives need to remain vigilant to the many risks and uncertainties clouding the outlook for 2020 while standing ready to embrace new opportunities for profitable growth in an evolving market landscape.