石油巨头转向可再生能源将造成石油供应危机

据今日油价10月12日报道，俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)的一位高管形容英国石油(BP)和壳牌(Shell)最近承诺转向可再生能源的做法是“石油供应面临的危机”。迪迪埃?卡西米罗表示，这种转变将导致石油供应更加吃紧，而需求将继续增长。而这场供应危机有可能推高油价，令Rosneft等公司受益。在今年的大部分时间里，石油市场的焦点一直是需求。正是需求使这场石油工业危机成为前所未有的危机。以前价格也曾下跌，但供应通常会下降以平衡市场。但现在，而几年春季需求被新冠肺炎造成的危机所掏空，尽管欧佩克+和非欧佩克成员国大幅减产，但需求仍使油价保持低位。

他补充道，从另一方面来讲，需求也是促使大型石油公司如此迅速地在可再生能源领域采取行动的因素之一。这些计划在危机之前就已经在制定了，但危机给了很大的推动力。现在，英国石油和壳牌都计划减少的石油和天然气产量，加大对可再生能源的投资。正如英国石油最近股价下跌所显露的那样，投资者仍保持谨慎，但就目前而言，这种转变似乎是不可避免和不可阻挡的，而这很可能造成供应缺口。

卡西米罗在英国《金融时报》的一场活动中表示：“我认为，这些石油巨头要脱离他们正在做的核心业务，就需要有人介入。因为这会对供应构成威胁，我们将面临（供应）紧缩、价格波动，当然还有面临更高的价格的风险。”

近期，石油需求的持续担忧导致价格持续走低，在这种情况下，很难看清未来走势。美国能源信息署(EIA)连续三周报告的原油库存连续三周上涨的信息，无法提振油价。与此同时，航空公司再次以请求政府更多援助的方式占据了新闻头条，众做周知，航空旅行占了燃料需求的很大一部分。在航空旅行恢复之前，石油需求无法恢复到疫情爆发前的水平。

当前，疫情仍在继续，对新一轮出行限制的担忧也在加剧，这加剧了看跌情绪。这种担心的合理性是值得怀疑的，因为，今年春季实施封锁的政府为此付出了高昂代价，除非感染人数继续快速上升，否则不太可能再次冒险实施封锁。但这次疫情的感染人数可能会继续上升，而且速度很快，死亡人数是否会快速上升尚不清楚，“不确定性”是全世界面临的难题。

尽管现在很难集中精力关注供应趋势，但大规模的开支削减是事实，大型石油公司对可再生能源、能源存储和电动汽车充电的热衷也是事实。这迟早会导致供应短缺，即使需求趋于稳定或下降。

英国石油（BP）对需求的预测可能最为悲观，该公司在最新的能源展望中，正寻求转型为综合能源公司。即使是最乐观的情况下，该公司预计未来几年石油需求将趋于平稳，然后开始稳步下降。人们似乎越来越一致地认为，短期内需求可能永远无法恢复到疫情爆发前的水平。

像上述这样的一般性结论的问题在于，它们往往需要加以解释。目前，主流的解释似乎支持继续实施生产控制。欧洲正在走绿色之路，中国也在走绿色之路，壳牌和英国石油以及它们的大多数同行也在走绿色之路。石油需求肯定会保持低位。然而，亚洲有许多新兴经济体并没有采取环保行动，因为他们现在负担不起，尤其是在经济受到疫情破坏的情况下。尽管石油价格低廉，但他们将利用石油取代可再生能源来推动经济复苏。

Rystad Energy曾在6月时预测，石油短缺将从6月的150万桶/天增加到7月的460万桶/天。根据这段时间的价格变动来看，这种情况并没有发生。复苏的缓慢步伐令所有人措手不及。但仍有供应趋紧的预估，高盛(Goldman Sachs)上月表示，预计今年年底前石油缺口将达到每日300万桶，并推高油价。此外，瑞银还预计会出现供应短缺和价格上涨。

短期内，大型石油公司势必将参与到这次油价复苏中来。但从长期来看，随着这些大型石油公司放弃目前的核心业务，它们将为国有石油公司和页岩钻探公司留出更多空间。就目前而言，从所有雄心勃勃的政府可再生能源转移计划看来，这一空间可能不会太大，但仍要注意不确定性因素，以及对大多数这些计划能否成功存疑。只要欧佩克能挺过当前的危机，最终可能会比疫情爆发前更强大。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Could Big Oil’s Shift To Renewables Be Good For Prices?

An existential crisis for oil supply: this is how one Rosneft executive referred to BP’s and Shell’s recent commitments to a renewable energy shift. This shift, Didier Casimiro said, would lead to much tighter oil supply while demand continues to grow. And this existential crisis has the potential to benefit companies such as Rosneft by driving prices higher. For much of this year, the focus, when it comes to oil markets, has been on demand. It was demand that made this oil industry crisis an unprecedented one. Prices have fallen before, and as a result, supply typically falls to balance the market. But now, for the first time in history, it was demand that was the bigger culprit for the oil price collapse from this spring. Demand was eviscerated by the coronavirus pandemic. Demand is what is still keeping oil prices low despite a major cut in production made by OPEC+ and by non-members of the extended oil cartel.

Demand is also one of the factors that spurred Big Oil into such swift action on renewable energy. Their plans were in the making before the crisis, but it was the crisis that gave them a major push. Now, BP and Shell both plan to reduce their oil and gas production and invest more heavily in renewables. Investors remain wary as BP’s recent stock price drop suggests, but for now, the shift appears to be inevitable and unstoppable. And it may well create a gap of supply.

“I think that to go away from your core business, which is what they are doing, somebody will need to step in?.?.?.?somebody will need to take that responsibility,” Rosneft’s Casimiro told a Financial Times event. “It is an existential threat for supply. It is an existential threat for price volatility?.?.?.?we will have a [supply] crunch, price volatility, and yes higher prices,” he added.

It may be difficult to see so far into the future when all we hear these days is that continued fear about this oil demand is keeping prices low. Even three consecutive weekly crude oil stock draws reported by the Energy Information Administration could not help prices, because at the same time, airlines were again hogging headlines with their pleas for more government aid—and air travel accounts for a lot of fuel demand. Until air travel recovers, oil demand cannot recover to pre-pandemic levels.

Meanwhile, the pandemic continues, and fear of new lockdowns is also running high, fueling the bearish sentiment. How justified this fear is, is questionable as the governments that enforced lockdowns in the spring paid for them dearly and are unlikely to risk them again unless infection numbers continue to rise, and fast. But this is the thing with this pandemic: it is possible that infection numbers will continue to rise, and fast—whether the death counts will match remains unclear. Uncertainty is the name of this game, and the whole world is playing it.

Even though it may be hard to concentrate on supply trends right now, the massive spending cuts are a fact, and so is Big Oil’s enthusiastic foray deeper into renewables, energy storage, and EV charging. Sooner or later, this combination may well lead to a shortage of supply, even if demand is plateauing or falling.

BP has perhaps one of the most pessimistic projections for demand: in its latest Energy Outlook, the supermajor, which is on a quest to transform into an integrated energy company, said that even its most optimistic scenario saw oil demand plateauing over the next few years and then start declining steadily. Other forecasters tend to focus on short-term demand trends, but there appears to be a growing consensus that demand might not ever recover to pre-pandemic levels.

The trouble with general conclusions like the one above is the fact they lend themselves to interpretation. For now, the dominant interpretation appears to support continued production controls. Europe is going green, China is going green, and Shell and BP—along with most of their peers—are also going green. Oil demand is bound to stay low. Yet there are a lot of emerging economies in Asia that are not going green because they can’t afford it right now—not with their economies devastated by the coronavirus. And while oil is cheap, they will take it over renewables to fuel their economic recovery.

In June, Rystad Energy predicted a deepening oil deficit, to rise from 1.5 million bpd in June to 4.6 million bpd in July. Based on what we saw in terms of price movements during that period, this did not happen. The slow pace of recovery caught everyone unawares. But there are still forecasts for tighter supply: Goldman Sachs just last month said it expected the oil deficit to hit 3 million bpd by the end of this year and push prices up. UBS also expects a shortage and higher prices.

Over the short term, Big Oil will undoubtedly take part in this price recovery. But over the longer term, as the supermajors move away from what is now their core business, they will leave more space for the national oil companies and for shale drillers. For now, with all ambitious government programs for a renewable energy shift it looks like this space may not be too large but let’s not forget about the factor of uncertainty and the abounding doubts about the success of many of these programs. OPEC, as long as it survives the current crisis, might just end up even stronger than it was before the pandemic.