机构：预计油价将在第四季度开始上涨

据10月11日FX Empire报道，尽管原油价格在上周五下跌，但前一周石油多头占据了主导地位。西德克萨斯中质原油交易价格超过40美元/桶，布伦特原油结算价为43美元/桶，使原油价格上涨了10%。

由于Delta飓风扰乱了美国能源中心地区生产经营作业，石油多头相对控制了局面。进一步的数据显示,墨西哥湾的原油产量暴跌169万桶，即日产量的92%，海上石油平台仍处于关闭状态。

由于2020年新冠肺炎疫情攻击全球经济造成需求脆弱，石油交易商将原油需求和供应的再平衡视为关键指标，因此石油交易商认为供应紧张，油价看涨。

这也表明受供应和需求变动影响，2020年原油价格下跌约36%也就不足为奇了。包括俄罗斯在内的欧佩克将于2020年11月30日至12月1日召开会议，以了解油气行业进展情况。

从价格方面来看，疫情造成的破坏很可能已经完全反映在脆弱的能源市场上，以布伦特原油为例，第二季度和第三季度的价格在每桶40- 45美元之间波动。

分析师普遍认为，在2020年之前，油价将不会大幅高于目前每桶40美元左右的水平，但也不太可能像过去那样出现暴跌，因为几乎所有的负面因素似乎都已被市场消化。

王佳晶 摘译自 FX Empire

原文如下：

Oil Prices Start Q4 up, Hurricane Delta Disrupts America’s Energy Hub

Oil bulls took charge in the previous week in spite of crude oil prices dropping on Friday. The West Texas Intermediate crude traded above $40/Barrel, and Brent crude settled at $43/Barrel, putting crude oil prices W/W gain at 10%.

Oil bulls took control relatively as Hurricane Delta disrupted America’s energy hub, taking , validating with data further revealed crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico plummeted by 1.69 million barrels or 92% of the energy hub’s daily output as a result of offshore oil platforms remaining closed after the dreadful storm tore through the region.

Crude oil traders are taking such squeeze in supplies bullish, as crude oil demand/supply rebalancing remains the key indicator, traders and oil players are taking into consideration in 2020, amid fragile demand as the COVID-19 virus onslaughts weigh its ugly head on the global economy.

That said, it becomes unsurprising to see crude oil prices still down about 36% in 2020.

OPEC+ including Russia is scheduled to meet on November 30-December 1, 2020 to know how it has fared on supporting the black viscous liquid hydrocarbon.

On the price pattern it’s very likely that COVID-19 disruption is now fully priced into the fragile energy market, as oil prices in the case of Brent crude ranged between $40-$45/Barrel, taking into account prices it traded at in Q2, Q3.

Analysts largely concur that oil prices are not expected to move much higher than current levels of around $40 a barrel until the rest of 2020, but neither are they likely as they did in the past as almost all negative factors seem to be priced in.