尽管经济低迷 但墨西哥汽油需求环比持平

据石油世界期刊10月9日墨西哥城报道， 墨西哥的汽油需求在经济停滞和冠状病毒流行造成的死亡人数不断增加的情况下继续保持。

根据墨西哥能源部提供的最新数据显示，在截至9月25日的一周中，汽油日销量为66.8万桶。 据数据显示，尽管比2019年低15％，即减少11.9万桶，但自6月底以来几乎没有变化。根据苹果公司最新的《移动趋势报告》显示，上个月在墨西哥的驾车人数比去年同期下降了16％。

墨西哥在整个2020年的汽油日均需求约为68万桶，年收缩约为12万桶。在2020年较低的基础和经济活动逐步正常化的帮助下，需求将在2021年恢复增长。然而，今年大部分时间的总体需求水平仍低于近期历史水平。普氏分析公司预计2021年墨西哥的石油日需求将达到75.5万桶。

最新经济指标显示，墨西哥经济尚未从新冠疫情的影响中完全恢复，并且缺乏活力。

总部位于墨西哥的CI Banco的经济分析师James Salazar表示，大多数指标都比2019年低10％-15％。我们看到的唯一复苏是消费者信心。前景是不确定的，有恶化的风险。他预计今年经济将缩减9%。

根据行业协会ANTAD的数据显示，包括美国巨头沃尔玛在内的该国百货商店的可比销售额在9月份连续第五个月同比下降。根据官方数据显示，9月份用于出口的汽车制造业也失去了动力，在经历了三个月的复苏之后，环比下降了4％。

供应稳定

根据数据显示，9月份的汽油进口量(主要由国家控制的墨西哥石油公司Pemex进口)保持不变，月环比为46.1万桶/日，但与2019年相比下降16%。

产量也保持不变。据数据显示，9月最后一周，该公司日产量为21.4万桶。尽管六家炼油厂之一的Tula的产量最近有所下降，但Pemex设法维持了9月份的汽油产量。

墨西哥政府已开始寻求提高其炼油能力，以最终停止主要从美国进口燃料。该国正在建设一座新的炼油厂，最近还宣布计划通过增加炼焦产能，对现有的两座炼油厂进行升级。

郝芬 译自 石油世界期刊

原文如下：

Mexico's gasoline demand steady on month despite languid economy

Gasoline demand in Mexico continues to hold up amid a stagnant economy and growing numbers of fatalities caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Sales of gasoline stood at 668,000 b/d in the week ended Sept. 25, the latest data available from the energy ministry showed. Despite being 15% or 119,000 b/d below 2019 levels, it has remained practically unchanged since the end of June, the data showed. According to Apple's latest Mobility Trends Report, driving in Mexico during last month was 16% lower from a year earlier period.

Mexican gasoline demand will average around 680,000 b/d for the full 2020,and an annual contraction of roughly 120,000 b/d. Demand growth is set to resume in 2021, aided by the much lower base set in 2020 and gradual normalization of economic activities. However, overall demand levels stay below recent history for most of the year. Platts Analytics projects 2021 Mexican demand to reach 755,000 b/d.

The latest economic indicators show the Mexican economy has not fully recovered from the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic and is lacking dynamism.

Most of the indicators are between 10% and 15% below 2019, James Salazar, economic analysts at Mexico-based CI Banco.

"The only recovery we have seen is in consumer confidence. The horizon is uncertain with risks of deterioration," said Salazar, who expects the economy to contract 9% in 2020.

Comparable sales at the county's department stores, including US giant Walmart recorded their fifth straight month of year-on-year decline in September, data from the industry's association ANTAD showed. Manufacturing of vehicles for exports also lost steam in September, official data showed, that fell 4% on a sequential basis after three months of recovery.

Supply steady

Imports of gasoline, mostly by state controlled Pemex, remained unchanged in September on a monthly comparison at 461,000 b/d, although it is down 16% compared to 2019, the data showed.

Production also remained unchanged. On the last week of September, the company produced 214,000 b/d, the data showed. Pemex managed to maintain production of gasoline through September, despite recent output declines at Tula, one of the six refineries, data showed.

The Mexico administration has embarked on a quest to increase its refining capacity to eventually stop importing fuels, mainly from the US. The country is building a new refinery and recently announced plans to upgrade two of the existing ones by adding coking capacity.