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石油市场复苏正在放缓

作者: 2020年10月15日 来源:中国石化新闻网 浏览量:
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据今日油价10月12日报道,就在全球石油需求在4月大跌20%之后,分析师预计2020年下半年石油消费将复苏,在欧佩克+减产和美国减产的支撑下,石油市场将实现再平衡。截至7月,石油需求已收复了二季度的大部分损失,但随

据今日油价10月12日报道,就在全球石油需求在4月大跌20%之后,分析师预计2020年下半年石油消费将复苏,在欧佩克+减产和美国减产的支撑下,石油市场将实现再平衡。截至7月,石油需求已收复了二季度的大部分损失,但随着美国、印度和欧洲等主要经济体新冠肺炎疫情的再度爆发,复苏开始出现动摇。由于全球仍有大量过剩的原油和石油产品库存有待处理,夏末,有关疫情和经济复苏的高度不确定性开始给石油市场和油价带来压力,当时人们清楚地认识到,2020年不会是石油市场恢复平衡的年份。

世界最大的石油消费国美国的石油库存正在减少,但速度非常缓慢。市场正在走向再平衡,但这一过程可能要多花好几个月的时间,而且肯定比最初预期的要多。

如今,许多不确定因素都给石油需求预测和油价带来了下行压力,包括当经济复苏时,许多国家的许多人都能获得有效的疫苗,以及对是否需要在家工作和虚拟企业活动和会议上的行为发生了改观。

石油市场的再平衡也取决于欧佩克+的未来政策,该集团正计划从2021年1月开始,进一步将石油减产规模从770万桶/日缩减至580万桶/日,而第一季度全球石油需求处于最疲弱状态。

美国是全球最大的石油消费国,也是最透明的石油市场。最近几周,美国的每周库存报告提供了一些令人鼓舞的迹象。不过,离市场平衡还有很长的路要走,因为今年早些时候创下的创纪录高位需要被消耗。

路透社市场分析师John Kemp根据EIA数据估计,在过去11周中,美国原油和产品库存存在10周的下降。在最近一周的报告中,EIA报告称,截至10月2日,原油库存增加了50万桶,但汽油和馏分油库存的下降,以及产量的大幅增加,是每周库存报告中的亮点。

美国原油库存为4.929亿桶,仍较今年同期的五年平均水平高出约12%。然而,过剩库存已经从7月份超过五年平均水平的19%有所减少。当前,汽车汽油总库存略低于5年平均水平,这是3月份以来汽油库存首次低于5年平均水平。

储备的减少已经开始,但供需平衡的时间将比预期的要长,而且可能会因采取更严格的措施抗击重新出现的新冠肺炎疫情而偏离,特别是在今年秋冬的流感季节。

欧佩克秘书长穆罕默德巴金多本月稍早表示,疫苗将大大改善供需状况,但在那之前,巨大的不确定性和风险将继续动摇石油市场,并影响经济复苏的步伐。

考虑到欧佩克目前计划在2021年1月之前再将减产规模减少200万桶/天,这些巨大的不确定性可能会让欧佩克+联盟再次陷入困境。

沙特高级石油顾问本周对《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)表示,据报道,欧佩克最大产油国沙特阿拉伯正在考虑取消减产。

如果新冠肺炎病例上升导致更多地方封锁和经济活动的减少,那么,在未来几个月,如果想在石油需求复苏停滞的情况下阻止全球石油库存再次增加,那么可能别无选择,只能推迟放宽减产措施。

尽管预计未来几个月库存将减少,但EIA预计高库存水平和过剩的原油生产能力将限制油价上行。EIA预计布伦特原油现货价格在2020年第四季平均为42美元/桶,2021年将升至47美元/桶。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下:

What Is Slowing The Oil Market Recovery?

Just after global oil demand crashed by 20 percent in April, analysts predicted that consumption would recover in the second half of 2020 and, supported by the OPEC+ production cuts and U.S. curtailments, would help the oil market to rebalance. By July, oil demand had recouped most of the losses incurred during the second quarter, but the recovery started to wobble with the resurgence of coronavirus cases in major economies, including in the United States, India, and Europe. High uncertainties about COVID-19 and the economic recovery started to weigh on the oil market and prices at the end of the summer when it became clear that 2020 would not be the year of oil market balance as the world still has a lot of excess crude and oil product stocks to process.

Stocks are drawing down in the world’s top petroleum consumer, the United States, but the pace is very slow. The market is moving toward rebalancing, but this process will likely take many months more and certainly more than initially expected.

A number of uncertainties put downward pressure on every oil demand forecast and on oil prices these days, including when an effective vaccine could be available to many people in many countries when economies recover, and whether consumer behavior has changed for good with work from home and virtual corporate events and conferences.

Oil market rebalancing also hangs on the future policies of the OPEC+ group, which, as-is, is planning to additionally taper the oil production cuts from 7.7 million bpd to 5.8 million bpd beginning in January 2021. This would come in Q1, in which oil demand in the world is typically at its weakest.

The weekly inventory reports in the world’s largest oil consumer and most transparent market, the United States, have provided some encouraging signs in recent weeks. Still, we are a long way off to a market balance because the record-high stocks that were built earlier this year need to be drawn down.

Total crude oil and product stocks in the U.S. have declined in 10 out of the last 11 weeks, Reuters market analyst John Kemp estimates, based on EIA data.

In the latest reporting week, the EIA reported a crude oil inventory build of 500,000 barrels through October 2, but a decline in gasoline and distillate stocks and a sizeable increase in production were the bullish highlights of the weekly inventory report.

At 492.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories were still about 12 percent above the five-year average for this time of year. The excess stocks, however, have shrunk from 19 percent above the five-year average in July. Total motor gasoline inventories were just below the five-year average for this time of year—the first time gasoline stocks fell below the five-year average since March.

The stock drawdown is already taking place, but the balancing will take longer than expected and could be derailed by stricter measures to combat resurging COVID-19 cases, especially in the flu season this fall and winter.

OPEC’s Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said earlier this month that a vaccine would “significantly brighten” the demand/supply scenario, but until that time, “large uncertainties and risks will continue to destabilize the oil market and affect the pace of economic recovery.”

These large uncertainties could put the OPEC+ coalition in a bind, again, considering that it currently plans to ease the cuts by another 2 million bpd as of January 2021.

OPEC’s top producer and de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, is reportedly mulling over canceling the easing of the cuts, senior Saudi oil advisers told The Wall Street Journal this week.

If rising COVID-19 cases lead to more local lockdowns and reduced economic activity in the coming months, the OPEC+ alliance may have no other choice but to postpone the easing of the cuts if it wants to prevent another rise in oil stockpiles around the world amid stalled oil demand recovery.

“Despite expected inventory draws in the coming months, EIA expects high inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward pressure on oil prices. EIA forecasts monthly Brent spot prices will average $42/b during the fourth quarter of 2020 and will rise to an average of $47/b in 2021,” the EIA said in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook this week.

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