IEA:今年天然气需求将出现有史以来最大降幅

据油价网10月12日报道，国际能源署(IEA)周一表示，尽管近几个月天然气消费量有所上升，但2020年全球天然气需求仍将出现创纪录降幅。

根据该机构的最新报告《2020年全球天然气安全评估》，今年全球天然气需求将下降3%，即下降1200亿立方米，是有史以来降幅最大的一年。

四个月前，IEA曾预测，到2020年，天然气需求将同比下降4%，即下降1500亿立方米。IEA当时表示，这将是2008年金融危机后需求损失的两倍。IEA称，所有地区的天然气需求都将受到冲击，但欧洲、北美、亚洲和欧亚大陆的成熟市场受到的冲击将最大，这些市场将占今年天然气消耗损失的75%左右。

总部位于巴黎的IEA如今修改了今年的需求预期，但仍预计今年的需求降幅将是全球天然气市场历史上最大的降幅。

IEA表示，尽管进行了这一修正，但预计今年全球天然气需求仍将出现创纪录的最大降幅。

该机构表示，明年天然气需求将比2020年增长3%，但增加的不确定性使前景蒙上阴影。

IEA称，新冠肺炎病例的再次出现和疫情持续的前景给2021年的复苏步伐带来了进一步的不确定性，导致前一份报告的数据向下调整。2021年全球天然气需求的复苏可能会受到亚洲、非洲和中东市场快速增长的支持。

该机构警告称，在更成熟的市场，复苏将更加缓慢，可能要到2022年或更晚的时候，需求才能恢复到新冠疫情之前的水平。

IEA执行主任法提赫·比罗尔在一份声明中表示，全球天然气需求自6月以来已逐步复苏，主要受新兴市场推动。

比罗尔补充道，但是，这并不意味着一切都会恢复正常，因为当前的危机可能会产生长期的影响。

郝芬 译自 油价网

原文如下：

IEA: Natural Gas Demand To See Largest Drop Ever In 2020

Despite some uptick in consumption in recent months, the world’s demand for natural gas is still set to see its biggest drop on record in 2020, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday.

According to the agency’s new report, Global Gas Security Review 2020, global natural gas demand is set to decline by 3 percent, or by 120 billion cubic meters (bcm), this year, the largest drop ever.

Four months ago, the IEA had forecast that natural gas demand would drop by 4 percent year on year in 2020, or by 150 billion cubic meters. This would represent twice the amount of demand lost after the 2008 financial crisis, the IEA said back then. Gas demand in all regions will be hit, but the biggest impact will be felt in mature markets across Europe, North America, Asia, and Eurasia which together will account for about 75 percent of lost gas consumption this year, the IEA said.

Now the Paris-based revised up its demand outlook for this year, but it still expects a drop that would be the largest decline in history of global gas markets.

“In spite of this revision, 2020 is still assumed to experience the largest recorded drop in global natural gas,” the IEA said.

Next year, natural gas demand is set to increase by 3 percent compared to 2020, but increased uncertainties cloud the outlook, according to the agency.

“The resurgence of Covid-19 cases and the prospect of a prolonged pandemic brings further uncertainty to the pace of recovery in 2021, which has led to a downward adjustment from the previous report. The recovery of global gas demand in 2021 is likely to be supported by fast-growing markets in Asia, Africa and the Middle East,” the IEA said.

Recovery is set to be slower in more mature markets, which may not see demand returning to the pre-COVID-19 levels until 2022 or later, the agency warned.

“Global gas demand has been progressively recovering since June, driven mainly by emerging markets,” IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.

“However, this does not mean a return to business as usual, as the current crisis could have long-lasting repercussions,” Birol added.