石油和天然气下一步将走向何方？

据3月9日Investing.com报道，一是，美国能源政策转变——即将减少产出；二是，纽约商品交易所原油期货价格升至新高，并继续向上突破；三是，天然气价格走低；四是，美国和欧佩克原油产量下降推动油价上涨；五是，与往年相比，天然气库存正在下降。

原油和天然气市场在2020年跌至25年来的历史低点后正在重新进行调整。2020年4月20日，纽交所原油价格跌至每桶负40.32美元，这是自1980年代初WTI开始交易以来的最低价格。随着储存设施被填满，这种能源大宗商品无处安放。西博恩(seaborn)布伦特(Brent)基准期货跌至本世纪最低水平——每桶16美元。

此外，2020年6月底，天然气价格达到1.432美元/百万英热，这是1995年以来的最低价格。

从那以后，价格开始回升。对导致需求蒸发的全球新冠肺炎疫情结束的乐观情绪推高了石油和天然气价格。与此同时，创纪录水平的央行货币流动性和政府刺激措施增加了全球货币供应，在全球金融体系中播下了通胀的种子。

2021年初，原油和天然气价格不断走高，这一趋势似乎还将持续下去。美国石油基金和美国天然气基金是ETF产品，随着石油和天然气期货合约的投资组合涨跌。

美国能源政策转变:石油产量即将减少

美国取消了Keystone XL输油管道项目，该项目将加拿大阿尔伯塔省的原油输送到美国。

加强监管和向替代能源转变将减少美国的石油产出。此前，美国主张将石油和天然气生产从中东和其他全球生产国组织中独立出来，而当前的政策路径将改变美国的能源格局。

纽约商品交易所原油期货价格升至新高，并有望继续上涨。纽约商品交易所原油期货周线图显示，这种能源大宗商品上周升至每桶66.42美元的新高。原油价格在3月5日突破了2020年每桶65.65美元的高点。下一个目标在每桶66.60美元附近，也就是2019年4月的高点位。

未平仓情况下，纽约商品交易所石油期货市场的多头和空头头寸总数接近250万桶，高于11月初的200万桶水平，要知道，当时能源大宗商品达到每桶33.64美元的低点，并恢复了从2020年4月开始的上升轨迹，创下历史新低。价格动能和相对强弱指标仍处于超买状态。周波动率为2.9%，反映了油价缓慢而稳定的攀升。

天然气价格走低

2020年6月，天然气期货价格跌至25年来的最低水平，近月合约价格为每百万英热1.432美元。

自那以后，天然气价格连续走低。虽然未平仓合约指数从超过130万降至略低于120万的水平，这可能是季节性因素造成的。3月初，天然气市场将迎来需求淡季，因为本月底，天然气库存将开始攀升。

截截至2009年9月，周价格动能和相对强弱指标均为中性。2021年，每周的历史波动率一直稳定在50%以上，但从去年11月初需求旺季开始时的80%以上有所下降。

美国和欧佩克原油产量下降助力油价上涨

美国原油产量在2020年3月达到创纪录的1310万桶/天。根据美国能源信息署(EIA)的数据，截至2月26日当周，日产量为1000万桶/天，同比下降23.7%。

美国能源政策的转变可能会导致从2020年3月开始的创纪录产量在可预见的未来保持不变，因为现在的监管环境支持未来几个月和几年内更低的产量水平。

尽管替代能源可能最终会让美国实现能源独立，但短期影响是，将部分定价权交还给了欧佩克和俄罗斯。上周，尽管油价上涨，但欧佩克+决定保持目前的生产政策不变，沙特阿拉伯将继续自愿额外减产。

随着美国经济逐渐摆脱疫情困境，此举可能会挤压美国消费。沙特石油部长在CNBC接受记者采访时表示，欧佩克+目前已经提高了石油市场的定价权。欧佩克成员国宁愿以更高的价格卖出更少的石油，也不愿以更低的价格卖出更多的石油。在欧佩克最新产量决定的影响下，原油期货价格再创新高，超过2020年的峰值。

与前几年相比，天然气库存正在下降

3月4日，EIA公布了全美天然气库存的最新情况。虽然最新的供应数据显示，截至2月26日，美国库存减少了1.845万亿立方英尺，低于普遍预期，同比减少13.1%。此外，2月底的库存较5年平均水平低8.8%。

未来几周股市将继续下跌。Estimize网站显示，目前的普遍预期是，截至3月5日当周的库存将再减少880亿立方英尺。

牛市很少是呈直线的。在大宗商品领域，原油或天然气期货市场通常需要一次供应冲击才会出现抛物线走势。由于全球一半以上的原油储备都在中东这个充满不可抗力的地区，总有可能发生意外事件，导致油价大幅走高。

总而言之，美国能源政策的转变对油气价格是有利的。我们已经看到这种影响渗透到能源大宗商品的价格上。在未来几周和几个月里，逢低买入石油和天然气可能是最佳的做法。

王佳晶 摘译自 Investing.com

原文如下：

What’s Next For Oil And Gas?

US energy policy shifts- Less output on the horizon

Nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rise to a new high and break out to the upside

Higher lows in natural gas

Crude oil production declines in the US- OPEC helps the rally

Natural gas inventories are falling compared to prior years

Crude oil and natural gas markets are readjusting after falling to all-time and quarter-of-a-century lows in 2020. On April 20, 2020, the NYMEX crude oil price dropped to negative $40.32 per barrel, the lowest price since WTI began trading in the early 1980s. As storage facilities filled, there was nowhere to put the energy commodity. The seaborn Brent benchmark futures fell to the lowest level of this century at $16 per barrel.

In late June, natural gas reached $1.432 per MMBtu, the lowest price since 1995.

Since then, prices have recovered. Optimism over the end of the global pandemic that caused demand to evaporate lifted oil and gas prices. Meanwhile, record levels of central bank liquidity and government stimulus increased the global money supply, planting inflationary seeds in the world financial system.

Crude oil and natural gas prices have moved higher over the past months, and that trend looks likely to continue. The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) and the United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSE:UNG) are ETF products that move higher and lower with a portfolio of oil and gas futures contracts.

US energy policy shifts: Less output on the horizon

On his first day in office, US President Joe Biden canceled the Keystone XL pipeline project that transports crude oil from the oil sands in Alberta, Canada, to the US. With both houses of the US Congress in the hands of the President’s political party, the odds of a greener energy policy agenda are high.

Increased regulations and a shift towards alternative energy sources will decrease US output. The previous administration advocated for US oil and gas production to achieve independence from the Middle East and other world producers. The current policy path will alter US energy dynamics.

Nearby NYMEX crude oil futures rise to a new high and break out to the upside

The path of least resistance for the oil price remains higher as of Mar. 5.

The weekly chart of NYMEX crude oil futures highlights the energy commodity rose to a new and higher high last week at $66.42 per barrel. Crude oil conquered the 2020 $65.65 peak on March 5. The next target is nearby at $66.60, the April 2019 high.

Open interest, the total number of long and short positions in the NYMEX oil futures market stood at nearly 2.5 million barrels, up from the two-million-barrel level in early November when the energy commodity reached a low of $33.64 and resumed its upward trajectory that began in April 2020 with the all-time low. Price momentum and relative strength indicators remain in overbought conditions. Weekly historical volatility at 2.9% reflects the slow and steady climb of oil’s price.

Higher lows in natural gas

In June 2020, natural gas futures fell to the lowest level in a quarter-of-a-century when the nearby contract traded to $1.432 per MMBtu.

Since then, natural gas has made a series of higher lows. While the open interest metric declined from over 1.3 to just below the 1.2 million contract level, the drop is likely a function of seasonal factors. In early March, the natural gas market is looking towards the offseason for demand when injections into storage begin to climb later this month.

Weekly price momentum and relative strength indicators were on either side of neutral readings as of Ma. 5. Weekly historical volatility has been holding steady at over the 50% level in 2021 but has declined from over 80% in early November at the start of the peak season for demand.

Crude oil production declines in the US; OPEC helps the rally

US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.1 million barrels per day in March 2020. According to the Energy Information Administration, daily output was running at 10.0 mbpd as of the week ending on February 26, a decline of 23.7% on a year-on-year basis.

The shift in US energy policy will likely cause the record from March 2020 to stand for the foreseeable future as the regulatory environment now supports even lower production levels for the coming months and years.

While alternative energy sources may eventually lead to US energy independence, the short-term impact hands some of the pricing power back to OPEC, the international petroleum cartel, and the Russians. Last week, OPEC+ decided to leave the current production policy intact despite the price rise. Saudi Arabia will continue its voluntary cut.

The move could squeeze US consumers as the economy emerges from the pandemic. In an interview on CNBC, the Saudi oil minister told a reporter, “Drill-baby-drill is dead,” in the US in a sign that OPEC+ now has increased pricing power in the oil market. The cartel’s members would rather sell fewer barrels at a higher price than more at a lower one. Crude oil futures rallied to a new high above the 2020 peak in the aftermath of OPEC’s latest output decision.

Natural gas inventories are falling compared to prior years

On Thursday, March 4, the Energy Information Administration released the latest snapshot of natural gas inventories across the United States.

While the latest supply data showed a withdrawal from storage below consensus estimates, at 1.845 trillion cubic feet as of February 26, stocks are 13.1% below last year’s level. Moreover, inventories were 8.8% under the five-year average for the end of February.

Stocks will continue to decline over the coming weeks. According to Estimize, a crowd-sourcing website, the current consensus estimates for the week ending on March 5 is for another 88 bcf decline in inventories.

Bull markets rarely move in a straight line. In the world of commodities, it typically takes a supply shock to cause a parabolic move in the crude oil or natural gas futures market. With more than half the world’s crude oil reserves in the Middle East, a highly turbulent political region, there is always a potential for an unexpected event that sends prices appreciably higher.

The bottom line is the shift in US Energy policy is bullish for oil and gas prices. We are already seeing the impact filter through to prices of the energy commodities. Buying dips in oil and gas could be the optimal approach over the coming weeks and months.