多种因素将澄清未来几个月天然气需求前景

据美国钻井网站2021年3月8日报道，美国钻井网站的3名定期市场观察人士近日表示，美国德克萨斯州最近的冻结、石化原料供应紧张以及美国疫情限制的放松，将有助于更好地了解未来几个月的天然气需求。在本期“本周油气市场值得关注的事情”中，请继续了解他们的解释和其它见解。

油气数据公司Validere战略副总裁马克·勒·达因说：石化产品的定价正悄然达到多年来的最高纪录，由于天然气液体(NGL)产量的减少，这可能会支撑天然气价格。整个冬季，围绕汽油价格的传言不绝如耳，当我们进入平季时，我们应该更好地了解有多少需求存在。

塔尔萨大学柯林斯商学院能源经济、政策和商务学院院长汤姆·森说：美国原油产量应该会恢复到风暴前的水平，约为1100万桶/天，而高油价应该会刺激有限但稳定的新钻井和生产活动。毫无疑问，对德州能源危机的事后分析将迫使所有电力和天然气公用事业公司——无论它们在哪里——确保它们明年冬天开始时储存足够的紧急天然气供应。4月份是“夏季”天然气回注季节的开始，这可能在未来7个月支撑天然气期货价格。随着德克萨斯州、密西西比州和康涅狄格州的“重新开放”，市场将密切关注其他州的效仿，这可能导致更多的能源需求。

投资银行B. Riley Securities的股票研究部高级能源服务和设备分析师Tom Curran说：由于压力泵在冬季风暴Uri造成的中断和延迟以后恢复作业，美国在用的压裂队伍数会创造新的复苏新高。2月12日，Primary Vision每周的在用压力队伍数达到了上升周期以来的峰值175个，然后，随着风暴的影响从巴肯地区扩散到美国中部大陆地区，并穿过德克萨斯州南部，在2月19日下降到41个。当我们将提交这些回应时，最近的每周可以获得的读数是在2月26日，当时的读数是140个。在美国油田服务公司Select能源服务公司第4季度业绩电话会议上，首席财务官Nick Swyka在公司管理层的开幕致辞中表示：“我们预计今年下半年在用的压裂队伍数量将增加到180至200个。”

李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

原文如下：

Mix of Factors Set to Clarify Natural Gas Demand Outlook

Fallout from the recent Texas freeze, tight petrochemical feedstocks, and the loosening of coronavirus restrictions in the United States should contribute to a better understanding of natural gas demand in the months to come, according to three of Rigzone’s regular market-watchers. Read on for their explanations, along with other insights, in this installment of what to watch this week in the oil and gas markets.

Mark Le Dain, vice president of strategy with the oil and gas data firm Validere: Petchem pricing is quietly reaching multi-year records, and this will likely support gas prices as the respective natural gas liquids (NGL) volumes are pulled out of stream. There has been so much noise around gas pricing through the winter that, as we get into shoulder season, we should get a better sense for how much of this demand there is.

Tom Seng, Director – School of Energy Economics, Policy and Commerce, University of Tulsa’s Collins College of Business: U.S. production of crude should return to the pre-storm levels of about 11 million barrels per day (bpd) while higher prices should spur limited, but steady, activity in new drilling and production. The post-mortem on the energy crisis in Texas will, no doubt, force all power and gas utilities – regardless of where they are – to ensure they start next winter with adequate emergency natural gas supplies in storage. April is the start of the “summer” reinjection season which could support natural gas futures prices for the next seven months. With Texas, Mississippi, and Connecticut “re-opening,” the market will be watching for other states to follow suit which could result in more demand for energy.

Tom Curran, Senior Energy Services and Equipment Analyst in Equity Research, B. Riley Securities: As pressure pumpers resume work following the disruptions and delays inflicted by Winter Storm Uri, will the active U.S. frac spread count set a new recovery high. The Primary Vision weekly active count reached an upcycle-to-date peak of 175 on February 12 and then, as the storm’s effects spread from the Bakken into the MidCon and through South Texas, it plunged to 41 on February 19. As we’re submitting these responses, the most recent weekly reading available is for February 26, when the count stood at 140. As part of management’s opening remarks during Select Energy Services’ (NYSE: WTTR) 4Q20 earnings call, CFO Nick Swyka said, “We expect active frac crews to advance toward the 180 to 200 crew count range in the back half of the year.”