EIA提高美国2021-22年天然气和电力消耗预测

据天然气新闻2021年3月10日华盛顿报道，尽管2月份的冻结限制了今年第一季度的产量，但更高的原油价格预测和美国经济前景改善的假设促使EIA在3月9日提高了其对美国2021-22年天然气生产和消费的预测。

在3月份的短期能源展望（STEO）报告中，EIA还将其对今年美国电力消耗的预测提高了2.1%，理由是今年第一季度的气温比去年同期更低。

虽然EIA在报告中把其对美国第一季度可直接投入市场销售的天然气总产量预测下调了7.1亿立方英尺/天至979.7亿立方英尺/天，但EIA把第二季度天然气产量的估计数提高了6.3亿立方英尺/天至985,8亿立方英尺/天，以及把今明两年的平均天然气产量分别提高6.1亿立方英尺/天至989.5亿立方英尺和17亿立方英尺/天至1006.3亿立方英尺/天。

EIA把第一季度干气产量下降主要归因于2月份的冻结天气，但展望未来，EIA把今年的干气总产量预测上调至914亿立方英尺/天，比此前的STEO估计高出9亿立方英尺/天。

展望报告称，“更高的预测在很大程度上反映了更高的预测原油价格，EIA预计这将有助于增加相关的天然气产量。”

EIA估计，由于2月份寒冷的天气覆盖了美国大部分地区，推高了供暖和发电的需求，2月份美国的平均天然气消费量达到了1118亿立方英尺/天的历史最高水平。

李峻 编译自 天然气新闻

原文如下：

US EIA lifts forecasts for 2021-22 natural gas and power consumption

Higher forecasted crude oil prices and an assumptions of an improved US economic outlook prompted the Energy Information Administration March 9 to boost its forecasts for natural gas production and consumption, despite the February freeze that crimped production in the first quarter of 2021.

In its March Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency also raised its forecast for US electricity consumption in 2021 by 2.1%, citing colder temperatures in the first quarter compared with the 2020 season.

While EIA lowered its Q1 total marketed gas production forecast by 710 MMcf/d to 97.97 Bcf/d, it raised the estimate for Q2, by 630 MMcf/d to 98.58 Bcf/d, as well its forecasts for the 2021 and 2022 averages, up 610 MMcf/d to 98.95 Bcf/d and 1.7 Bcf/d to 100.63 Bcf/d, respectively.

The agency attributed Q1 dry gas production declines mostly to February freeze-offs, but looking ahead raised its forecast for overall dry gas production to 91.4 Bcf/d in 2021, or 900 MMcf/d more than its previous STEO estimate.

"The higher forecast largely reflects higher forecast crude oil prices, which EIA expects will contribute to more associated natural gas production," the outlook said.

The agency estimated that gas consumption in February was the highest on record, at 111.8 Bcf/d, as cold weather blanketed much of the US, driving up demand for heating and power generation.