石油和大宗商品价格飙升 利弊互存

据彭博社3月11日报道，你可能会认为，世界蹑手蹑脚地走出新冠肺炎疫情，对各国政府和经济体来说可能只会是个好消息。然而，随之而来的能源、金属和农作物价格飙升，突显出一些国家的优势和一些国家的脆弱性。

自11月初以来，石油价格已经上涨了75%，主要经济体为民众接种了疫苗，并将因疫情而关闭的工厂、停飞的飞机重新启动。用于汽车、洗衣机和风力涡轮机等各种产品的铜，目前的交易价格水平达到了10年前的水平。5月份以来，食品价格每个月都在上涨。

这对出口商来说是个福音。对于沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯等能源巨头来说，大量资金的涌入是可喜的，因为它们面临着国内的挑战。

交易总是有两面性的。一些依赖进口的国家正感受到债券和外汇市场的压力。不断上涨的燃油价格让巴西国家石油公司总裁失去了工作，已促使世界第三大原油进口国印度呼吁欧佩克+提高石油产量，并将土耳其的通胀率推高至15%以上。

高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)和华尔街一些竞争对手正在谈论新的大宗商品“超级周期”。这让人们担心，未来可能会出现更具破坏性的通胀，而富裕国家也无法幸免。

英国收回了提高汽油税的决定，以避免惹怒疲惫不堪的司机。在美国，德克萨斯的石油钻探者和玉米种植带的农民可能会从中受益，但包括科技界亿万富翁在内的一些人正受到压榨。埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)恳请矿商挖出更多的镍，他需要这种金属为特斯拉公司(Tesla Inc.)的电动汽车制造电池。

在油价高涨中获益的赢家:

去年的封锁和大宗商品价格下跌使澳大利亚遭受巨大冲击，该国经历了近30年来的首次衰退。但政府预计2021年会有意外收获。去年12月，该国最大出口商品铁矿石的销量创下历史新高，而小麦的销量正接近这一水平，养牛户也在努力跟上对牛肉的需求。

自去年11月底以来，澳元的表现一直好于其他主要货币，兑美元升值5%。

作为全球最大的铜生产国，智利的相对实力在金融市场上也很明显。比索是过去3个月里唯一对美元升值的拉美主要货币，智利股市也是全球最活跃的股市之一。

随着铜价近十年来首次突破每磅4美元，智利的财政状况正在改善。2月份铜出口为39亿美元，较上月增长42%。

赞比亚也是如此，该国80%的出口收入都依赖于铜。疫情爆发后，该国成为非洲第一个对欧洲债券违约的国家，该国迫切需要资金。

在巴克莱指数跟踪的大约75个新兴市场中，赞比亚的美元债务今年涨幅最大。

去年，所有石油国家都遭受了损失，但伊拉克尤为突出。据国际货币基金组织的数据，该国经济下滑约11%，跌幅超过了几乎所有其他主要石油出口国。这一局势给欧佩克带来了麻烦，伊拉克是欧佩克的第二大石油生产国。包括沙特阿拉伯在内的其他成员国批评巴格达在欧佩克试图支撑油价时未能充分减产。

随着原油市场的回暖，伊拉克的月度财政收入从2020年第二季度的约30亿美元攀升至50亿美元。虽然仍远低于平衡预算所需的水平，但有明显的喘息之机。

在油价高涨中不利的输家:

作为全球最大的小麦买家和石油净进口国，每当大宗商品价格回升时，埃及都会遭受重创。

到目前为止，埃及设法控制住了通胀。埃及正试图通过在市场上购买更多的对冲合约来保护自己免受油价上涨的影响，而外国投资者仍在购买本国债券。但根据彭博社对分析师的调查，今年该国国内生产总值(gdp)将仅反弹2.9%，约为全球经济预期水平的一半。

王佳晶 编译自 彭博社

The Winners and Losers From Surging Oil and Commodity Prices

You’d think a world tiptoeing its way out of the coronavirus pandemic might only be good news for governments and economies. Yet the consequent surge in the price of energy, metals and crops is highlighting the strengths of some and the vulnerabilities of others.

Oil has climbed 75% since the start of November as major economies vaccinate their populations and reopen after the pandemic shut down factories and grounded planes. Copper, used in everything from cars to washing machines and wind turbines, is trading at levels last seen a decade ago. Food prices have jumped every month since May.

That’s been a boon for exporters. The flood of cash is a welcome relief for energy behemoths such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, whose leaderships have domestic challenges to contend with.

But there are always two sides to a trade. Some countries that depend on imports are feeling the squeeze in bond and currency markets. Rising fuel prices cost the head of Brazil’s state oil company his job. They’ve led India—the world’s third-largest crude importer—to call on the OPEC+ cartel to raise oil production and pushed Turkey’s inflation rate above 15%.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and some Wall Street rivals are talking of a new commodities “supercycle.” That’s raising the specter of more damaging inflation down the line—and richer countries aren’t immune, either.

The U.K. government backtracked on raising gasoline tax so as not to rile lockdown-weary drivers. In the U.S., Texan oil drillers and Corn Belt farmers may be benefiting, though others including tech billionaires are being squeezed. Elon Musk has pleaded with miners to dig up more nickel, a metal he needs to make batteries for Tesla Inc.’s electric vehicles.

Winners

Last year’s lockdowns and commodity downturn stung Australia, which experienced its first recession in almost three decades. But the government can expect a windfall in 2021. Sales of iron ore, its top export, hit a record in December, while those of wheat are edging toward the same level and cattle farmers are struggling to keep up with demand for beef.

The Australian dollar has performed better than any other major currency since the end of November, strengthening 5% against the U.S. dollar.

The relative strength of Chile, the world’s biggest copper producer, has also been evident in financial markets. The peso is the only major Latin American currency to appreciate against the dollar over the past three months and Chile’s stock market has been among the world’s most buoyant.

With prices of the red metal rising above $4 a pound for the first time in about a decade, Chile’s finances are improving. Copper exports stood at $3.9 billion in February, up 42% from the month before.

Similar can be said for Zambia, which relies on copper for almost 80% of export earnings. The country has been desperate for money after it became the first in Africa to default on its Eurobonds following the onset of the pandemic.

The country bought the local operations of Glencore Plc in January at what’s looking more and more like a favorable price and global investors have started to become more bullish. Zambia’s dollar debt has rallied the most this year among the roughly 75 emerging markets tracked by Bloomberg Barclays indexes.

All petrostates suffered last year, but Iraq stood out. Its economy sank around 11%, more than that of almost any other major oil exporter, according to the International Monetary Fund. The government couldn’t pay teachers and civil servants on time and Iraqis took to the streets to rail against power cuts, dilapidated hospitals, crumbling roads and a lack of jobs.

The situation caused problems for OPEC, of which Iraq is the second-biggest oil producer. Other members, including Saudi Arabia, criticized Baghdad for failing to cut output enough as the cartel tried to bolster prices.

As the crude market picked up, Iraq’s monthly fiscal revenue climbed to $5 billion from about $3 billion in the second quarter of 2020. They’re still far below what’s needed to balance the state budget, but there’s clear respite.

Losers

As the world’s biggest buyer of wheat and a net oil importer, Egypt suffers badly whenever commodity prices pick up. It’s also politically sensitive because millions of people depend on subsidized bread. The Arab Spring uprisings a decade ago were triggered in part by increasing food costs and swept long-standing ruler Hosni Mubarak from power.

So far, President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi’s government has managed to keep a lid on inflation. Egypt is trying to protect itself against higher oil costs by buying more hedging contracts in the market, and foreign investors are still purchasing local bonds. But gross domestic product will rebound just 2.9% this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, around half the level expected for the global economy.