石油和天然气行业的挑战和趋势

据福布斯3月11日报道，目前，油气行业面临三大挑战。第一，以更低的成本和更少的排放生产更多的能源。当前，全球人口正在增加，新冠肺炎疫情后的能源需求不仅会恢复，而且会增加。与此同时，世界需要更清洁的能源，因此石油和天然气公司必须以更少的排放供应这种能源。这是一项艰巨的任务，但许多组织正在积极应对。只要看看工业、大学和政府为减少排放所做的工作，你就会看到他们正在为生产更清洁的能源做出巨大努力。这需要时间，但到2050年或更早达到净零排放的轨迹是明确的。油气公司需要在降低成本的前提下继续努力。投资者正在要求他们在石油和天然气公司的投资获得更高的回报。虽然油气公司不能控制产品的价格，但他们可以控制每年的支出。2015年以来的趋势是整个行业在降低成本基础方面取得的显著成就之一。

第二个挑战是，为了满足需求，油气行业每年需要投资约5000亿美元，尤其困难的是资本成本上升带来的强劲逆风。自2015年以来，油气行业一直投资不足，特别是在上游业务。一旦全球闲置产能枯竭，就需要重新投资，不仅要维持石油和天然气的产量，而且要实际增加石油和天然气产量，以满足世界各地客户的需求。这一挑战将很难实现，如果不能有效地开发或重新开发供应，以与需求保持同步，我们将看到一段时间的石油和天然气价格上涨。

对油气公司来说，第三个挑战是如何展示不同的、持久的现金流。大量投资者逃离了石油和天然气行业。在过去，许多石油和天然气公司以增长的名义透支现金流。对绝大多数公司来说，情况不同了。不过，投资者的信心尚未恢复，能源公司需要表明，它们有资本纪律，并将持续向股东返还资金。这种趋势已经开始但疫情及其影响降低了需求，推迟了所有优良措施的积极影响，石油和天然气公司正在做的是按照它们的方式来降低成本,以一致的和可预测的收益回报股东。随着世界从疫情中恢复过来，从他们的报告中可以明显看出该行业的良好表现

那么，未来12到24个月会看到什么样的趋势呢?油气公司将继续降低成本、降低碳排放和降低风险。降低成本需要不懈地提高价值链各个方面的效率。降低碳排放要求一流的操作实践以及持续的技术开发和部署。油气公司可以通过更好的储层模型、更好的可视化等手段来降低技术风险。这三种趋势很可能会在未来两年持续很长时间。它们已经成为企业在今天的能源市场中茁壮成长和生存的必要条件。最后，除了应对上述挑战所需的硬技能外，油气公司还需要不断培养沟通、协作和创新等软技能。在某些方面，软技能的持续开发和成功应用是最难的部分，但它们是成功所必需的。

未来几十年，世界将继续使用石油和天然气。当今和未来的消费者不仅需要能源，而且需要清洁、廉价和可靠的能源。油气行业可以应对这些挑战，也必须与客户、政府和大学合作。到2050年实现净零排放是可能的，但大家都需要尽自己的一份力量。

王佳晶 摘译自 福布斯

原文如下：

Challenges And Trends For The Oil And Gas Industry

There are three primary challenges facing the oil and gas industry exist today. The first is to produce more energy at lower cost with less emissions. The global population is increasing, and energy demand post COVID-19 will not only recover, but also increase. At the same time, the world is demanding cleaner energy so oil and gas companies must supply this energy with less emissions. This is a tough task, but many groups are rising to the occasion. Just look at the work being done by industry, universities and governments to lower emissions, and you will see that a very large effort is being made to produce cleaner energy. It will take time, but the trajectory is clear to get to net zero emissions by 2050 or sooner. Oil and gas companies need to continue their good work at lowering costs. Investors are demanding better returns on their investment in oil and gas companies. While companies cannot control the price of their product, they can control the amount of money they spend annually. The trend since 2015 is one of remarkable achievement in lowering the cost base of the entire industry.

The second challenge is for the oil and gas industry to collectively invest approximately $500 billion each year just to keep up with demand. What makes this particularly difficult is the strong headwind of rising capital costs. Since 2015 the oil and gas industry has underinvested, especially in the upstream portion of the business. Once the global spare capacity is depleted there will be a need to reinvest in not only maintaining, but actually growing oil and gas production to satisfy the needs of customers around the world. This challenge will be difficult to achieve and if it is not handled effectively to develop or re-develop supply to stay in-step with demand, we will see a period of higher oil and gas prices.

The third challenge is for oil and gas companies to demonstrate differential and durable cash flows. There’s been a large number of investors fleeing the oil and gas sector. In the past, many oil and gas companies outspent their cash flows in the name of growth. That is no longer the case for the vast majority of companies. Still, investor confidence has not yet returned. Energy companies need to show that they have capital discipline and will consistently return money to their shareholders. This trend has already begun but the COVID-19 pandemic and its effect on lowering demand has delayed the positive impact of all the good work oil and gas companies have done and are doing to keep costs down and spend within their means while rewarding shareholders with consistent and predictable returns. As the world recovers from the pandemic, evidence of the industry’s good work will be obvious from the returns they report.

So what trends we will see for the next 12 to 24 months? These are very clear. Oil and gas companies will continue to lower costs, lower carbon emissions and lower risk. Lowering cost requires the relentless pursuit of improving efficiencies in every aspect of the value chain. Lowering carbon emissions mandates best in class operational practices as well as continued technology development and deployment. Oil and gas companies can lower technical risk with better reservoir models, better visualization and more. These three trends will likely continue well beyond the next two years. They have become requirements for businesses to thrive and survive in today’s energy market. Lastly, besides all the hard skills that are needed to meet the challenges outlined here, oil and gas companies will need to continually develop the softer skills of communication, collaboration and innovation. In some ways, the continued development and successful utilization of soft skills is the hardest part of all, yet they are absolutely required for success.

The world will be using oil and gas for decades to come. The customer of today and tomorrow will demand not only access to energy, but that it is clean, affordable and reliable. The oil and gas industry can meet these challenges and must to do that in partnership with customers, governments and universities. Reaching net zero emissions by 2050 is possible, but we all need to do our part.