市场预计原油价格仍会飙升

据3月15日CNBC报道，一位分析师表示，原油价格正走向2014年以来的最高水平。Piper Sandler的克雷格?约翰逊(Craig Johnson)上周五在接受CNBC“贸易国家”(Trading Nation)节目采访时表示，能源板块今年迄今为止的涨幅接近40%，创下了历史上最好的季度表现，油价显然也有一些上行空间。

上周五，美国西德克萨斯中质原油价格下跌0.5%，至每桶65.60美元左右。“与标准普尔500指数相比，XLE的表现出现了多年的逆转。显然，这里出现了一些非常积极的趋势。这些都是开始显现的较长期主题和趋势。”

Johnson表示，一个小公司可以从这些趋势中获得巨大的利益。他指着勘探和生产公司Cimarex Energy的一份图表表示:“不要忘了中小型股，因为它们也在参与行动。在我们看来，要回到2018年的高点，可能还有40%以上的上行空间。”

Cimarex股价周五收于每桶65.14美元，跌幅近2%。如果股价在上述水平上再涨40%，该股将跌至每股91.20美元左右。

由于欧佩克可能至少在夏季之前保持产量稳定，Laffer Tengler Investments的Nancy Tengler也预期油价会飙升：“在10月份之前，我们不会看到石油供应增加，这意味着油价可以很容易地从现在开始上涨。我们的预期是在夏季达到每桶80美元左右，因此，大多数石油股票是看涨的。”

王佳晶 摘译自 CNBC

原文如下：

Crude to $100: Trader makes the case for a spike in oil prices

Crude oil prices are on a path to highs not seen since 2014, according to one chart analyst.

As the energy sector tracks for its best quarter on record with a year-to-date gain of nearly 40%, there’s “clearly some upside” for oil prices as well, Piper Sandler’s Craig Johnson told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices slid half of 1% to around $65.60 a barrel on Friday.

“I could actually see a number that could be north of 100 in the next, say, six to ... 12 months from here,” said Johnson, his firm’s senior technical research analyst.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) is also showing signs of life after a difficult 2020, he said.

“There is clearly a double bottom that has been made and even a higher low that has been made,” he said, citing a chart of the 23-stock exchange-traded fund.

“We’re getting a multi-year reversal in terms of the performance of the XLE compared to the S&P 500. Clearly, there are some very positive trends happening here,” he said. “These are longer-term themes and trends that are starting to unfold.”

One smaller name could see outsized benefits from those trends, Johnson said.

“Don’t forget about the mid- and small-cap stocks, too, because they’re also participating in the action,” he said, pointing to a chart of exploration and production company Cimarex Energy.

“To us, it looks like you could have more than 40% upside to get back to the old highs in 2018,” he said.

Cimarex shares closed nearly 2% lower at $65.14 on Friday. A 40% run from those levels would bring the stock to around $91.20 a share.

With OPEC likely to keep production steady until at least the summer, Laffer Tengler Investments’ Nancy Tengler was also expecting a surge in oil prices.

“We don’t see any supply increase until October, which means the price of oil can run pretty handily from here. Our expectations are somewhere around $80 a barrel in the summer, so, that’s bullish for most of the oil stocks,” she said in the same “Trading Nation” interview.