亚洲LNG需求颠覆全球定价模式

据世界石油3月15日消息，亚洲作为全球天然气贸易超级大洲的崛起，将越来越多地影响欧洲天然气的市场价格，天然气这种本地化商品的价格曾经一度仅与石油价格相关。

这一变化在今年冬天得到了突出体现，当时北半球的低温使得液化天然气油轮纷纷将货物运往亚洲，而亚洲是液化天然气的最大消费区，卖方可以从中获得创纪录的高价。这推高了欧洲的天然气市场水平，相反，随着冬季结束、液化天然气供应回归该地区，价格也随之刹车。

瑞士交易商Axpo Solutions AG基础分析和建模团队负责人安迪·索默（Andy Sommer）表示：“未来几年，欧洲天然气价格将越来越不以欧洲为中心，而变得日益受全球影响。”

尽管有众多的管道供应选择，但由于北海油田老化导致国内产量下降，欧洲对进口的依赖仍在增加。与此同时，主要受亚洲需求推动，跨洋运输的液化天然气贸易正在加速扩张。

未来几年，欧洲将不得不与印度、巴基斯坦和孟加拉国的消费者争夺液化天然气。此外，由于一些亚洲国家刚刚开始使用天然气发电，而不是污染更严重的煤炭和燃油，新的市场尚未开放。相比之下，欧洲收紧的气候目标将导致更多可再生能源与天然气竞争。

索默表示：“你可以将其与煤炭市场相比较，亚洲一直是欧洲煤炭价格的锚点。天然气市场也正陷入同样的情况。”

液化天然气产量的增长主要发生在美国和俄罗斯等相对靠近欧洲的国家。但距离亚洲买家更近的地区新建电厂的速度现在已经放缓，这一因素被视为促进了全球天然气市场的互联性。

能源咨询公司Cornwall Insight表示:“英国和欧洲天然气市场对全球液化天然气价格的敏感性可能会增加。由于没有在英国新建长期储存设施的具体计划，加上英国大陆架产量不断下降，未来几年可能会加大对液化天然气的依赖。”

去年冬天液化天然气价格的波动可能是未来形势的先兆。德国默克尔能源咨询公司(Merkel Energy consultancy)董事总经理克里斯托弗 默克尔(Christoph Merkel)表示，随着贸易机制的演变，这种超低温燃料正成为一种全球性大宗商品，现在它正决定着天然气的价格。

他表示:“液化天然气价格已成为天然气市场价。目前仍存在一些其他核心价格，但液化天然气现在才是市场的驱动力。”

裘寅 编译自 世界石油

原文如下：

Asia’s LNG demand upends global gas pricing models

Asia’s emergence as global natural gas trading superpower will increasingly dictate market rates in Europe for a once-localized commodity that was simply linked to the price of oil.

The change was highlighted this winter, when freezing temperatures in the northern hemisphere meant liquefied natural gas tankers went to Asia, the biggest consumer of the fuel and where sellers could get record-high rates. That pushed up market levels in Europe and, conversely, is now acting as a price brake as winter ends and LNG supplies return to the region.

“Over the next couple of years European gas prices will become less and less Europe-centric, and more and more globally influenced,” said Andy Sommer, team leader for fundamental analysis and modeling at Swiss trader Axpo Solutions AG.

Even with its numerous pipeline-supply options, Europe’s import dependency is rising amid falling domestic production due to aging fields in the North Sea. At the same time, trade in LNG transportable across oceans is expanding faster, driven mainly by demand in Asia.

In coming years, Europe will have to compete for LNG with consumers inIndia, Pakistan and Bangladesh. In addition, new markets are yet to open as some Asian nations are just starting to use gas in power generation instead of more polluting coal and fuel oil. By contrast, Europe’s tightening climate targets will lead to more renewables squeezing out gas.

“You can compare it to the coal market,” Sommer said. “Asia was always an anchor for European coal prices. The situation is moving into the very same phenomenon in the gas market as well.”

LNG production is rising primarily in nations relatively close to Europe, such as the U.S. and Russia. But the addition of new plants in regions closer to Asian buyers has now slowed, a factor seen boosting the interconnectedness of gas markets worldwide.

“The susceptibility of UK and European gas markets to global LNG prices may be set to increase,” according to energy consultant Cornwall Insight. “With no concrete plans for new long-term storage facilities in the UK and declining UK Continental Shelf, it could point to a greater LNG dependency in the coming years.”

This past winter’s LNG price volatility may be a taste of things to come. The super-chilled fuel is becoming such a global commodity as trade mechanisms evolve, that it’s now dictating natural gas prices, according to Christoph Merkel, managing director of the Merkel Energy consultancy in Germany.

“LNG prices have become the gas market prices,” he said. “There are still some hub prices, but LNG is now the market’s driver.”