并购浪潮改善英国北海油气行业发展前景

据天然气新闻2021年3月12日伦敦报道，在未来投资不确定和环境压力的背景下，新的运营商崭露头角，一波并购浪潮燃起英国北海石油和天然气行业逐步复苏的希望。

尽管包括挪威在内的北海地区的石油产量占全球石油产量的3%，且能满足欧洲天然气需求的很大一部分，但北海油气工业生产的布伦特和福尔蒂斯等原油等级的产量一直面临下降的警告。

英国去年的石油日产量下降了7%，日产量仅略高于100万桶。据预测，从明年到2027年，英国的石油日产量将急剧下降，届时将降至60.7万桶。

去年，英国油气行业面临多重挑战，包括受新冠肺炎疫情影响的海上油气活动限制、资本预算削减以及对其二氧化碳排放量的越来越严格的审查。

然而，英国最近几周也出现了一系列并购消息，表明投资者愿意投资更多项目，尽管复苏速度滞后于挪威，但英国的税收优惠刺激了一系列开发承诺，其中多数规模较小，但目标至少为2.75亿桶油当量。

挪威国家银行(DNB)高级副总裁马克 芒罗3月在一次英国行业活动上表示，如果英国企业将战略与能源转型挂钩，那么英国油气行业将仍有资金可用。

上周，英国私营Neo能源公司收购了同为独立企业的Zennor石油公司。不到一个月前，Neo能源公司宣布收购埃克森美孚公司在英国的大部分上游业务；7个月前，Neo能源公司收购了一批道达尔公司的资产。在Zennor石油公司的Finlaggan项目和其他项目的支持下，Neo能源公司预计在2022-2026年期间，其油气日产量将增加近两倍，达到9万至10万桶油当量的稳产水平。

而3月份，英国油气行业迄今最大的一笔并购交易应该会完成：私人股本支持的Chrysaor公司与Premier石油公司合并，成立Harbour能源公司，后者将在伦敦证交所上市，并可能成为英国最大的油气生产商。

英国凯恩能源公司3月9日宣布，将向新成立公司Waldorf 生产公司出售其在Premier石油公司的 Catcher和EnQuest's Kraken油田持有的少数股权，理由是这些油田的产量预计会下降。

尽管如此，这些交易被描绘成将资产掌握在致力于最大化英国北海地区潜力的公司手中。

早在去年11月，北海承包商Subsea 7首席执行官约翰?埃文斯向投资者抱怨，很多“金融工程”在没有大量实际投资的情况下进行，而像Subsea 7这样的公司不得不处理英格兰和苏格兰之间应对新冠肺炎疫情大流行制度的差异，或者用他的话说，是国家的“子元素”。然而，到2月底前，他把英国形容为一个“亮点”，经济活动开始好转。

毫无疑问，英国油气行业面临着各种挑战，今年夏天，一系列维修停运将导致产量下降，监管压力也将加大。

在3月3日举行的行业网络研讨会上，行业集团英国石油和天然气协会首席执行官Deirdre Michie表示，英国目前的海上油气活动仍比大流行前水平低四分之一，并强调了等待批准投资的不确定性；这些项目包括位于设得兰群岛西部的大型项目，如Cambo和Rosebank石油开发项目，以及BP 克莱尔油田的潜在扩建项目。

政府的支持

在同一场活动中，英国政府商业、能源和清洁增长大臣Anne-Marie Trevelyan指出，英国油气行业面临越来越多的挑战，特别是在控制其运营排放方面，据信其排放量占英国总排放量的3.5%。

据监管机构英国石油和天然气管理局称，英国在一个领域取得了进展，即遏制多余天然气燃烧的努力；去年，尽管没有燃烧直接排放到大气中的天然气量有所增加，但海上燃烧的天然气量下降了22%。各种各样的计划也在制定中，将低碳电力引入海上设施，以帮助遏制排放。

随着英国油气行业开始应对排放挑战，金融服务公司安永事务所合伙人乔恩?克拉克表达了乐观的看法。他参与了英国近期的并购交易，“新的或正在成长的组织向英国大陆架投入大量资金，对英国油气行业的未来来说是一个非常积极的信号。”

对于英国政府的举措，Trevelyan也普遍表示支持。她表示，“我们希望英国大陆架仍是一个有吸引力的投资目的地，并与英国油气行业合作，重新利用我们的能源体系。”

她说，“成熟盆地和产量下降以及老化资产确实构成了进一步的挑战。”“但如果说英国油气行业有什么特点的话，那就是它所展现出的韧性，以及它在供应链创新方面的天赋。”

李峻 编译自 天然气新闻

原文如下：

M&A wave improves prospects for UK North Sea

A wave of mergers and acquisitions is raising hopes for a gradual recovery in the UK's North Sea oil and gas sector, with new operators coming to prominence at a time of uncertainty over future investment, and environmental pressures.

The North Sea industry, which produces crude grades such as Brent and Forties that contribute to the Dated Brent benchmark, has long faced warnings of decline, even as the region, including Norway, accounts for 3% of global oil output and meets a significant share of Europe's gas needs.

UK oil output fell 7% last year to just over 1 million b/d, and Analytics forecasts a steepening decline from next year to 2027, when it expects output to fall to 607,000 b/d.

The sector has faced multiple challenges in the last year including restrictions on offshore activity due to the pandemic, cuts to capital budgets and rising scrutiny of its CO2 footprint.

However, there has also been a spate of M&A announcements in recent weeks, suggesting a willingness to invest in further projects, albeit the recovery lags Norway, where tax breaks have spurred a flurry of development commitments, most of them small, but targeting at least 275 million barrels of oil equivalent.

Mark Munro, senior vice president of Norwegian bank DNB, told an event for the UK industry this month there was still capital available for the sector provided companies link their strategies to the energy transition.

The last week has seen privately owned Neo Energy buy fellow independent Zennor Petroleum less than a month after Neo announced the purchase of most of ExxonMobil's UK upstream business, and seven months after it bought a clutch of Total assets. Neo expects to almost triple its oil and gas output to stable rates of 90,000-100,000 boe/d in 2022-2026 on the back of Zennor's Finlaggan project and other prospects.

And this month should see the completion of the sector's biggest current M&A deal: private equity-backed Chrysaor's merger with Premier Oil to form Harbour Energy, which will be listed on the London Stock Exchange and could become the UK's largest oil and gas producer.

A somewhat more negative tone was struck by Cairn Energy's announcement March 9 that it is selling its minority stakes in Premier's Catcher and EnQuest's Kraken fields to newcomer Waldorf Production, citing the fields' expected decline.

Nonetheless, such deals are portrayed as putting assets in the hands of companies committed to maximizing the region's potential.

Back in November, John Evans, CEO of North Sea contractor Subsea 7, was complaining to investors about a lot of "financial engineering" going on without much actual investment, while companies like his had to manage differences between pandemic regimes in England and Scotland, or "sub-elements" of countries, as he put it. By last month, however, he was describing the UK as a "bright spot," with activity picking up.

There is no doubt the sector faces challenges, with a swath of maintenance shutdowns set to reduce production this summer, and intensifying regulatory pressure.

At an industry webinar March 3, Deirdre Michie, CEO of industry group Oil & Gas UK, said offshore activity was still a quarter below pre-pandemic levels and highlighted uncertainty over investments awaiting approval; these include sizeable West of Shetland projects such as the Cambo and Rosebank oil developments and a potential expansion at BP's Clair field.

Government support

At the same event, the government's minister for business, energy and clean growth, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, noted a "growing list of challenges" for the sector, particularly in curbing its operational emissions, thought to account for 3.5% of total UK emissions.

Progress is being made in one area, the effort to curb flaring of unwanted gas, according to regulator the Oil & Gas Authority; the volume of gas flared offshore dropped by 22% last year, although "venting" of gas directly into the atmosphere without combustion increased somewhat. Various schemes are also being developed to bring low-carbon electricity to offshore installations to help curb emissions.

With the industry starting to address the emissions challenge, Jon Clark, a partner at financial services firm Ernst & Young who has worked on recent M&A deals, struck an upbeat note. "New or growing organizations committing material sums of capital to the UK continental shelf is a very positive sign for the sector's future," he said.

For the government, Trevelyan was also broadly supportive. "We want the UK continental shelf to remain an attractive investment destination and to work with the sector in repurposing our energy system," she said.

"The mature basin and decline of production combined with aging assets does present a further challenge," she said. "But if there is one thing that characterizes the oil and gas industry, it is the resilience you have shown and the talent for innovation of your supply chain."