沙特石化产品价格上涨

据3月16日Trade Arabia消息：沙特石油化工产品价格继续保持上涨势头，在油价上涨超过30%的推动下，加上全球新冠肺炎疫苗分销对健康需求的乐观情绪，今年一季度聚合物产品平均价格环比上涨4-15％。

Al Rajhi Capital Research的数据显示，最近由于美国冬季暴风雪造成的供应中断，加上上游成本上升和下游需求健康，使得现货价格较2019年均价高出18-56%。

“我们预测聚合物价格至少在一年中的大部分时间里都将保持在较高水平，这是由于供应紧张，以及全球需求逐步改善。然而，今年一季度平均原料价格同比上涨了30%，主要是受油价上涨推动，这可能会部分抵消大多数产品价差的改善。"

Al Rajhi表示:“尽管如此，由于受季节性因素影响，我们预计沙特生产商的关键原料(丙烷和丁烷)价格在未来几个季度将逐渐下降。”

总的来说，沙特石油生产商很有可能从最近的油价飙升中受益，2021年利润可能强劲复苏(接近大多数公司2018年的水平)，这意味着今年可能会有更高的股息。

冯娟 摘译自 Trade Arabia

原文如下：

Saudi petchem prices move up

Saudi petchem prices continued their upward momentum with average polymer product prices rising 4-15% q-o-q so far in Q1 2021, aided by an over 30% jump in oil prices, coupled with optimism over healthy demand amid distribution of Covid vaccines globally.

More recently, tight supply mainly due to US supply disruptions on account of winter storm, along with rising upstream costs and healthy downstream demand, has pushed current spot prices 18-56% above 2019 average prices, according to Al Rajhi Capital Research.

“We model polymer prices to remain at these elevated levels for at least a large part of the year, on the back of tight supply (peak turnaround season ahead in China from April), and a gradual improvement in demand worldwide. However, average feedstock prices jumped 30% q-o-q in Q1 2021, primarily driven by increased oil prices, which could partially offset the likely improvement in spreads for most products.

“Nonetheless, we expect key feedstock (Propane & Butane) prices for Saudi producers to gradually come down in the coming quarters, due to seasonal factors (generally higher in Q1 and Q4),” Al Rajhi said.

Overall, Saudi petchem producers are well-placed to benefit from the recent surge in prices and are likely to witness a strong recovery in earnings (near to 2018 levels for most companies) in 2021, implying a possibility of higher dividends this year.