航空公司面临燃油价格上涨带来的新挑战

据彭博社3月17日消息：正如航空公司开始摆脱有史以来的最大跌幅一样，该行业也面临着新的难题：燃油价格的迅速上涨。

跟踪航空趋势的OAG高级分析师John Grant表示，不断上涨的燃油成本将使航空公司陷入两难境地。去年冠状病毒来袭时，需求突然消失，证明对冲成本高昂。

"考虑到燃油费用是航空公司最大、最不可预测的成本之一，这一现状确实令人焦虑担忧。"

据OAG称，目前全球产能仍略高于疫情前水平的一半，美国国内市场是增长的亮点。Sobie Aviation顾问Brendan Sobie表示，航空公司将不得不重新评估运力计划，因为燃油价格上涨需要更充分的飞行才能达到收支平衡。

据国际能源机构称，预计航空燃料和煤油的需求要到2024年才能恢复到疫情前的水平。

尽管如此，由于疫苗的推出和欧佩克+成员国减产导致供应紧张，需求前景有所改善，作为航空燃油定价基础的油价已从去年封锁高峰时的每桶20美元以下飙升至近70美元。原油价格今年上涨了近34%。

冯娟 摘译自 彭博社

原文如下：

Airlines face new challenge with fuel prices on upswing

Just as airlines start to emerge from their biggest slump on record, the industry is facing a new headache: a rapid rise in fuel prices.

Escalating fuel costs will create a dilemma for carriers who unwound hedges that proved costly when demand suddenly disappeared when the coronavirus hit last year, said John Grant, senior analyst at OAG, which tracks aviation trends.

“It’s more than a concern,” given that the fuel bill is the one of airlines’ biggest and most unpredictable costs, he said in a webinar.

Global capacity remains just above half of pre-pandemic levels, with the domestic U.S. market a bright spot for growth, according to OAG. Carriers are going to have to re-evaluate capacity plans because rising fuel prices require fuller flights to break even, said Brendan Sobie, a consultant at Sobie Aviation.

Demand for jet fuel and kerosene is expected to take until 2024 to recover to pre-pandemic levels, according to the International Energy Agency.

Still, oil prices -- which underlie jet-fuel pricing -- have skyrocketed from below US$20 a barrel at the height of lockdown last year to near US$70 as the demand outlook improves with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and output cuts from OPEC+ members tighten supply. Crude is up almost 34 percent this year.