金价或突破每盎司1750美元 油价将持稳

据3月22日Investing.com报道，在美国国债收益率飙升之际，美联储(FED)主席杰罗姆?鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)和财政部长珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)将在美国国会作证，预计近期金价将突破上周未能达到的1750美元的目标，重返1800美元/盎司的关口。

与此同时，预计美国原油价格将不会回落至上周触及的每桶60美元水平以下，虽然欧洲可能会因为新冠肺炎疫情的影响而进一步实行封锁措施，让人们对燃料需求的担忧持续升温。

鲍威尔和耶伦将出席众议院金融服务委员会(House Financial Services Committee)和参议院银行委员会(Senate Banking Committee)会议，讨论美国经济的健康状况，以及财政和货币刺激对经济从疫情中复苏的重要性。

本周还有六位以上的美联储官员将发表讲话，包括美联储副主席克拉里达(Richard Clarida)、副主席夸尔斯(Randal Quarles)、美联储理事布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)和纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉姆斯(John Williams)。

鲍威尔或耶伦会就缩减购债计划提供一些见解吗?

除了有关经济方面的发言外，投资者还希望在采取所谓的“缩减购债规模”之前，能了解到鲍威尔和耶伦愿意让美国国债收益率上升多少。要知道，美国基准10年期国债在周四触及13个月高点1.754%。

金融市场已经偏离美联储对货币政策的预期，市场预期美联储首次加息的时间将比其预期的更早。随着美国1.9万亿美元的经济刺激计划开始发挥作用，人们担心受到大规模打击的美国经济会出现失控的复苏。

Bianco Research的吉姆?比安科(Jim Bianco)在CNBC上谈到10年期美国国债时表示:“或许我们可以看到它跌回1.50%。但我认为，这不过是长期高收益率走势的一个喘息之机。”

由于美联储坚持将利率维持在接近零的水平，债券收益率飙升，有人认为未来几个月的经济复苏可能超出美联储的预期，从而导致通胀率不断攀升。

在通胀担忧加剧的环境下，美元通常会下跌，但在同样失控的经济复苏逻辑下，美元也会反弹。美元作为储备货币的地位增强了其作为避风港的地位，导致了新的美元多头头寸的建立。周一，美元兑六种主要货币的指数为91.98，接近关键位92。

美元和债券收益率飙升令黄金深为头痛，迫使金价从8月份接近每盎司2100美元的纪录高点下跌17%。周一格林尼治时间4点，纽约商品交易所(COMEX)黄金期货几乎持平，报每盎司1741.65美元，从日低1731.55美元/盎司反弹。

几十年来，每当人们担心通胀时，黄金都被吹捧为最好的保值手段。然而，近几个月来，由于华尔街银行、对冲基金和其他参与者在推高美国债券收益率和美元汇率的同时，刻意阻止黄金成为投资者的首选资产。美联储表示将在未来几个月加大债券购买力度的任何信号，都可能是压低收益率、引发金价反弹的原因。但鲍威尔在周三的月度新闻发布会上拒绝给出任何央行增加美国国债购买的暗示。

如果标普走软，黄金将获得更多关注

鲍威尔表示，随着时间的推移，美国失业率可能会从2月份的6.2%下降，而通货膨胀率将上升2.4%，预计美国经济将从2020年的疫情中实现反弹，GDP将增长6.5%。因此，美联储是否会进一步调整政策还有待观察。

纽约OANDA分析师Ed Moya表示:“未来几个月将很难确定哪些因素将是黄金投资者的主要推手。华尔街将继续关注债券市场的抛售，以及最近对科技股的轻视。”

Moya表示，金价开始获得一些投资者的关注，因美联储的行动最终将抵消公债收益率上升的影响。

黄金目前的状况较好，一个月以来上涨了0.7%，此前1 - 2月份金价下跌了9%。但美联储和标准普尔也将观望是否会重返每盎司1800美元或更高水平。

油价在一周暴跌后试图找到最低位

以石油为例，截至格林尼治时间4点，美国原油基准的纽约西德克萨斯中质原油价格为每桶61.22美元，下跌22美分，即0.4%。在伦敦交易的全球原油基准布伦特原油(Brent)报每桶64.25美元，下跌28美分，跌幅0.4%。

原油价格上周下跌了7%，这是原油价格继近五个月几乎没有增产后首次出现有意义的下跌。油价上涨是由欧佩克+减产、重新开放经济的承诺以及美国疫情救助措施推动的。

当时几乎被忽视的是对喷气式飞机和其他运输燃料的需求疲软，因为全球旅行仍然严重受到疫情的限制。欧洲与新冠肺炎疫情的持续斗争;疫苗接种速度慢得惊人;欧盟各国也没有严肃对待新的封锁措施。然而，这些担忧在周四达到了顶点，美国国债收益率升至13个月高点，美元指数飙升至近92点，加剧了这种担忧。美国西德克萨斯中质原油跌至每桶58.20美元，布伦特原油(Brent)跌至每桶61.45美元，均为5周低点。

德国周四表示，计划将封锁时间延长至第五个月，以控制疫情感染。此前，德国当局表示，新病例超过了医院的负荷。

路透社援引Axi首席全球市场策略师Stephen Innes的话表示：“现实情况是，我们距离需求的全面复苏还有很长的路要走，而创纪录的产能水平是支撑石油市场的主要因素。”

美国钻井公司也开始利用此前因对需求恢复的乐观情绪而出现的价格飙升，在截至上周五的一周内增加了自1月以来的最多的石油开采平台。

能源服务公司贝克休斯周五在其备受关注的报告中表示，作为未来产量的早期指标，上周石油钻机数量增加9台，至318台，为4月份以来最高水平。值得一提的是，过去7个月里，钻井平台数量一直在增加，较8月份244台的历史低点增加了近70%。

本周，石油和黄金数据纷繁复杂

石油和黄金价格也可能对美国本周公布的大量数据做出反应。这包括耐用品订单、个人收入和支出报告，以及新的房屋销售数据。

由于2月严重的冬季风暴对经济活动的影响，房屋数据以及个人收入和支出数据(包括美联储青睐的通胀指标PCE平减指数)可能会显示疲弱。然而，经济学家预计，经济衰退将是短暂的。

美国还将发布2020年第四季度GDP的最新修订版，最新报告的2020年GDP年度增幅为4.1%。

王佳晶 摘译自 Investing.com

原文如下：

Commodities Week Ahead: Gold Aims To Crack $1,750; Oil To Stay In $60s

Gold is expected to get above the $1,750 target it missed last week in its aim to return to the $1,800 berth, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testify before Congress amid the surge in US bond yields.

US crude oil, is, meanwhile, expected to avoid a return below the $60 mark hit last week, as the prospect of more COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe keep concerns about fuel demand on the boil.

Powell and Yellen will appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday to discuss the health of the US economy and the importance of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the recovery from the pandemic.

There are also more than half a dozen other Fed officials due to speak during the week, including Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, Vice Chairman Randal Quarles, Fed Governor Lael Brainard, and New York Fed President John Williams.

Will Powell Or Yellen Offer Insight Into Tapering?

Aside from their testimony on the economy, investors will also be hoping to glean an insight into how much higher Powell and Yellen would be willing to let Treasury yields go before resorting to what is popularly known as tapering.

US bonds’ benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit a session high of 1.707% by 12:00 AM ET (4:00 GMT), after Thursday’s 13-month high at 1.754%.

Financial markets have diverged from the Fed’s outlook for monetary policy, pricing in a first rate hike sooner than the central bank expects. This comes amid fears of a runaway recovery in a pandemic-hit economy as the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus goes to work.

“Maybe we can see it fall way back to 1.50 (%),” Jim Bianco of Bianco Research said on CNBC, referring to the 10-year Treasury note. “But I wouldn’t consider that anything more than a respite in a move for longer-term for higher-yields.”

Bond yields have surged on the argument that economic recovery in the coming months could extend beyond the Fed expectations, leading to spiralling inflation, as the central bank insists on keeping interest rates at near zero.

The dollar, which typically falls in an environment of heightened inflation fears, also rallied on the same runaway economic recovery logic. The greenback’s status as a reserve currency has bolstered its standing as a safe haven, leading to new long positions being built in the dollar. On Monday, the Dollar Index, pitted against six major currencies, was at 91.98, nearing the key 92 level.

The surging dollar and bond yields have been an anathema to gold, forcing the yellow metal to lose 17% from record highs of nearly $2,100 in August. At 4:00 GMT on Monday, gold futures on New York’s COMEX were almost flat at $1,741.65, recovering from a session low of $1,731.55.

For decades, gold was touted as the best store of value whenever there were worries about inflation. Yet, in recent months, it was deliberately prevented from being the go-to asset for investors as Wall Street banks, hedge funds and other actors shorted the metal while pushing up US bond yields and the dollar instead.

Any indications by the Fed that it will intensify bond buying in the coming months could be just the thing to clamp down on yields and spark a rally in gold.

But Powell in his monthly news conference on Wednesday declined to give any hint of the central bank adding to its Treasury purchases.

Gold Will Gain More Attention If S&P Weakens

Powell said that as the year progresses, the US jobless rate will likely decline from February’s 6.2% while inflation expands 2.4% amid an overall 6.5% growth in GDP expected in an economy rebounding from a pandemic-stricken 2020.

Thus, it will be a wait-and-see for further tinkering of Fed policy, he said.“The next few months will be very tricky in identifying what will be the primary catalysts for bullion investors,” said Ed Moya, analyst at New York’s OANDA. “Wall Street will remain fixated on the bond market selloff and recent disdain for technology stocks.”

Moya said gold was beginning to gain some investor attention because rising Treasury yields will eventually be countered by action from the Federal Reserve.

Gold is in a better position now, rising 0.7% month-to-date, after the 9% drop in January through February. But its return to $1,800 and beyond will also be a wait-and-see of the Fed and S&P.

Oil Tries To Find Floor After Weekly Plunge

In oil’s case, New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for US crude, was at $61.22 per barrel by 4:00 GMT, down 22 cents, or 0.4%.

London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, was at $64.25, down 28 cents or 0.4%.

Crude prices fell 7% last week, the first meaningful drop after a near five-month rally with barely any stops. The run-up was driven by OPEC+ production cuts, the promise of economic reopenings from coronavirus closures and the blockbuster US pandemic relief.

Virtually overlooked in that time was the anemic demand for jet and other transportation fuels as global travel remained heavily curtailed by the pandemic. Europe’s constant struggle with new outbreaks of COVID-19 infections; its alarmingly slow pace of vaccinations; and fresh lockdowns across the bloc were also treated with little seriousness.

On Thursday, however, those concerns came to a head, exacerbated by the 13-month highs in US Treasury yields and the Dollar Index’s spike to near 92. US WTI slumped to $58.20 while Brent fell to $61.45, both a five-week low.

Germany said on Thursday it planned to extend lockdowns to contain COVID-19 infections into a fifth month, after new cases exceeded levels authorities said will cause hospitals to be overstretched.

Said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at Axi, as quoted by Reuters:"The reality is that we're still a long way from a full demand recovery, and it's the record levels of withdrawn production capacity that's the main prop for the oil market."

US drillers were also starting to take advantage of an earlier spike in prices on optimism about returning demand, adding the most rigs for extracting oil since January in the week through Friday.

The oil drilling rig tally, an early indicator of future production, rose by nine to 318 last week, the highest since April, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday.

The rig count has been rising over the past seven months and is up nearly 70% from a record low of 244 in August.

A Data Crammed Week For Oil And Gold

Both oil and gold prices could also react to a raft of US data due this week. This include durable goods orders and the personal income and spending reports, along with figures on new and existing home sales.

The housing data, together with the personal income and spending figures, which include the PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, will probably show weakness, due to the impact of severe winter storms on economic activity in February. However, economists expect the slump to be short-lived.

The US is also to publish the latest revision of fourth quarter 2020 GDP, which was last reported at an annualized 4.1%.