市场对石油需求复苏的乐观情绪持续升温

据今日油价4月8日报道，欧佩克+预计，随着成员国们准备增产，未来几个月石油需求将大幅增加。欧佩克、俄罗斯及其盟友计划最早在今年7月前将石油日产量增加210万桶，这表明他们对市场反弹抱有信心。从现在到7月份，欧佩克+每月700万的减产规模将大大减少。

预计沙特阿拉伯也将减少其自愿减产的规模，到7月将增加100万桶的日产量。

在欧洲和拉丁美洲部分地区进入第三波新冠肺炎疫情之际，石油行业再次受到疫情的影响，从而不断加大限制措施，因此，这一放松产量限制的决定出人意料。

由于欧洲继续延长封锁措施，油价已跌至近两周以来的最低水平，这让市场对未来的需求趋势感到不确定。纽约期货周一下跌4.6%，从4月1日的每桶64.86美元跌至每桶62.15美元，令油价跌破美国原油50日均线。

欧佩克希望，随着产量的增加，依靠国际市场在夏季前消化更多的原油产量，油价仍将总体上保持在高位。然而，这将受到旅行限制、企业关闭和在家办公的规定的影响。

不过，对疫苗推广的乐观情绪仍在继续，因为英国已经为将近一半的人接种了疫苗，而美国为超过30%的人接种了疫苗。尽管欧洲和北美其他地区的疫苗接种速度较慢，但许多国家仍有希望在2021年底之前迎头赶上。

全球最大的独立石油交易商维托尔(Vitol)本周表示，预计未来10年石油需求将会增加，但它警告称，航空燃油的回收将会放缓。虽然某些石油行业仍将停滞不前，但其他行业预计将增长，包括用于制造业的轻质终端。

欧佩克+正越来越多地关注印度及其炼油商，因为沙特阿拉伯希望与印度这个全球增长最快的下游油品销售市场之一建立战略关系。目前，阿拉伯海湾国家占印度能源进口总额的20%左右，主要是石油和天然气。

尽管疫情继续阻碍石油需求，但围绕疫苗推出的乐观情绪以及新兴市场需求的增加，使得欧佩克+增产计划将受到热情的响应。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Optimism Grows Over Oil Demand Recovery

OPEC and partners are betting on a significant boost in oil demand over the coming months as member states get ready to ramp up oil production. OPEC, Russia, and their allies are planning to increase oil production by 2.1 million bpd by as early as July this year, suggesting the confidence they have in a market rebound. The organization’s output cuts of 7 million will be eased significantly each month between now and July.

Saudi Arabia is also expected to ease its voluntary output cuts to increase production by 1 million bpd by July.

The announcement to ease restrictions comes unexpectedly as the oil industry is once again suffering from increased Covid-19 restrictions as Europe and parts of Latin America go into a third wave of the pandemic.

Oil prices have dropped to the lowest in almost two weeks as European lockdown measures continue to be extended, leaving the market unsure of upcoming demand trends. Futures in New York fell 4.6 percent on Monday, from $64.86 a barrel on April 1 to $62.15, which decreased oil prices to below the U.S. crude’s 50-day moving average.

OPEC will be hoping that prices remain generally high as production increases, relying on the international market to soak up the higher crude production by the summer months. However, it will be battling with restrictions on travel, closed businesses, and the new working-from-home norm.

However, optimism around the vaccine rollout continues, as the U.K. has given the first vaccine to almost half of the population, and the U.S. to over 30 percent of the population. While vaccination programs in the rest of Europe and North America are moving at a slower rate, there is still hope that many countries will catch up by late 2021.

Vitol, the world's biggest independent oil trader, stated this week that it expects oil demand to increase over the next decade but warns jet fuel recovery will be slower. While certain oil sectors will remain stagnant, others are expected to increase, including light ends used in manufacturing.

While Covid-19 restrictions continue to hamper oil demand, optimism around the vaccine rollout as well as increased demand from emerging markets suggests OPEC’s plan to ramp up production will be met with enthusiasm.