到2050年绿色氢的成本预计将低于天然气

据彭博社4月8日新闻消息称，据彭博社周三发布的一份研究报告，利用可再生能源生产的“绿色氢”的成本将很快大幅下降，在许多领域将变得比天然气更便宜。

氢被认为是开发可持续能源和减少碳排放的领先者。

但它的生产成本很高，所需的电力会产生大量的二氧化碳或其他污染物。

绿色氢是通过电解产生的——电流通过水，由风力、太阳能或水力发电提供电力。

彭博社研究人员预测，其成本将在未来稳定下降，这在很大程度上归因于太阳能光伏发电（PV）价格的降低。

BNEF专家在一份报告中表示:“我们现在认为，到2050年，光伏发电的成本将比我们两年前认为的低40%。”

他们总结说:“从今天到2050年，用可再生电力生产‘绿色’氢的成本最多将下降85%。”

在这项研究涵盖的28个市场中，到2050年，绿色氢生产每公斤的成本可能低于1美元。

到2030年，绿色氢的成本预计将低于“蓝色氢”。“蓝色氢”由化石燃料发电，并通过捕获温室气体排放的过程生产。

预计到2050年，它的成本将低于甚至更脏的“灰色氢”，后者没有这个过程。BNEF氢分析师Martin Tengler说：“如此低的可再生氢成本可能会完全改写能源版图，”。

他补充说，在未来，“至少33%的世界经济将由清洁能源提供动力，其成本不会比化石燃料高出一分钱”。

然而，Tengler承认，要实现这一目标，“这项技术将需要政府的持续支持。”人们对氢技术感兴趣的一个原因是，当氢技术用于发动机燃料时，唯一的排放物是水蒸气。

因此，人们对它能够帮助清洁重工业和交通运输产生了希望。然而，目前这一过程需要使用煤炭或天然气产生大量能源。

朱佳妮 摘译自 彭博社

原文如下：

'Green hydrogen' forecast to cost less than natural gas by 2050

"Green hydrogen" produced using renewable energy will soon plunge in cost, becoming cheaper than natural gas in many areas, according to a study released Wednesday by the research group BloombergNEF.

Hydrogen is considered a leader in the race to develop sustainable energy sources and slash carbon emissions.

But it is expensive to produce and the electricity needed generates a lot of carbon dioxide emissions or other pollutants.

Green hydrogen is produced via electrolysis -- an electrical current passing through water -- with wind, solar or hydroelectric power providing the electricity.

BloombergNEF (BNEF) researchers forecast its cost will fall steadily in the future, in large part due to lower prices for solar photovoltaic power (PV).

"We now think that PV electricity will be 40 percent cheaper in 2050 than what we had thought just two years ago," BNEF specialists said in a report.

"The costs of producing 'green' hydrogen from renewable electricity should fall by up to 85 percent from today to 2050," they concluded.

In the majority of 28 markets covered by the study, green hydrogen production could cost less than one US dollar per kilogramme by 2050.

By just 2030, green hydrogen was projected to cost less than "blue hydrogen," which is produced with electricity generated by fossil fuels using a process that captures greenhouse gas emissions.

It is expected to cost less than even dirtier "grey hydrogen", which lacks that process, by 2050. "Such low renewable hydrogen costs could completely rewrite the energy map," BNEF hydrogen analyst Martin Tengler said.

In the future, "at least 33 percent of the world economy could be powered by clean energy for not a cent more than it pays for fossil fuels", he added.

For that to happen however, "the technology will require continued government support," Tengler acknowledged. One reason for strong interest in hydrogen technology is that when it is used to fuel motors, the only emission is water vapour.

It has therefore raised hopes that it could help clean up heavy industry and transportation. However at present the process requires large amounts of energy generated using coal or natural gas.