随着经济持续复苏 美国对石油产品需求有望增长

　　据ICIS-MRC网站4月12日莫斯科报道，根据烃加工网信息显示，美国能源信息署(EIA) 4月份的《短期能源展望(STEO)》预计，疫苗接种和财政刺激将支持美国经济的持续复苏，并推动美国对石油产品的需求增长。

　　预计汽油和馏分油的消耗量将比去年夏天有所增加，但仍低于2019年。

　　随着疫情的一些经济和行为影响在明年消退，我们预测美国对运输燃料的需求将增加。我们预测，2021年的汽油消费量将在8月份达到峰值，达到910万桶/天，高于我们在2020年8月看到的850万桶/天，但低于2019年8月的980万桶/天。2021年夏季的汽油日均消费量将为880万桶，较2020年夏季增加100万桶(增幅13%)，但比2019年夏季减少70万桶(降幅7%)。

　　据预测，2021年夏季，美国普通级汽油零售均价为每加仑2.78美元，比去年夏季的每加仑2.06美元高出72美分。与去年夏天相比，今年夏天全球经济活动将大幅增加的预测，导致原油价格上涨，而原油价格是美国汽油价格的最大决定因素。

　　应对疫情的措施对美国柴油需求的影响没有对汽油需求的影响大。我们预测，今年夏天包括柴油和取暖油在内的馏分燃料的日均消费量为400万桶，比去年夏天增长11%（即40万桶/天），当时美国的馏分燃料消费水平达到自2009年以来夏季的最低点。然而，预计馏分油消费量将接近2019年的水平（下降不到1%）。

　　正如MRC之前所写，美国汽油销售在因新冠病毒引起的待在家的要求首次出现大幅下降一周年之际首次实现同比增长。然而，根据IHS Markit的石油价格信息服务（OPIS）的最新数据显示，需求仍然远远落后于疫情前的水平。

　　郝芬 译自 ICIS-MRC

　　原文如下：

　　Demand for petroleum products expected to grow in the USA on continuing economic recovery

　　The EIA’s April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) expects vaccinations and fiscal stimulus to support continuing economic recovery and drive demand growth for petroleum products in the United States, reported Hydrocarbonprocessing.

　　Gasoline and distillate fuel consumption is expected to increase from last summer, but remain less than in 2019.

　　As some of the economic and behavioral effects of COVID-19 subside over the next year, we forecast that US demand for transportation fuels will increase. We forecast that gasoline consumption in 2021 will peak in August at 9.1 million barrels per day (b/d), more than the 8.5 million b/d we saw in August 2020 but less than the 9.8 million b/d in August 2019. We forecast that gasoline consumption during the summer of 2021 will average 8.8 million b/d, a 1.0 million b/d (13%) increase from summer 2020 but a 0.7 million b/d (7%) decrease from 2019.

　　The retail price of regular-grade gasoline in the United States is forecast to average USD2.78 per gallon (gal) during summer 2021, 72 cents/gal more than last summer’s average of USD2.06/gal. The forecast of significantly more global economic activity this summer compared with last summer contributes to higher crude oil prices, which are the largest determining factor in US gasoline prices.

　　The response to the COVID-19 pandemic has not affected US diesel fuel demand as much as it has affected gasoline demand. We forecast that consumption of distillate fuel, which includes diesel fuel and heating oil, will average 4.0 million b/d this summer, an 11% increase (400,000 b/d) from last summer when distillate consumption levels reached their lowest point for the summer in the United States since 2009. However, distillate consumption is expected to be nearly equal to 2019 levels (down less than 1%).

　　As MRC wrote before, gasoline sales in the United States have moved year on year into positive territory for the first time - on the one-year anniversary of the first major declines that resulted from COVID-induced stay at home orders. However, demand still trails pre-pandemic levels by a considerable margin, according to the latest data from Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) by IHS Markit.