美国页岩油产量增加或将引发欧佩克价格战

　　据世界石油 4月16日休斯敦报道，先锋自然资源公司表示，若美国页岩油生产商恢复过去10年的高速产量增长，他们将面临与欧佩克及其盟国的另一场油价战争。

　　先锋自然资源首席执行官斯科特·谢菲尔德在彭博新能源财经(BloombergNEF)年度峰会上表示，导致2020年石油市场最初崩溃的是页岩油，而非疫情的流行。他指出，卡特尔企业联盟对美国生产商成功从欧佩克手中夺取市场份额感到沮丧，因此致使油价下跌。

　　谢菲尔德还称:“欧佩克和俄罗斯对我们增长过快感到不满。如果我们再次开始过度增长，就会爆发另一场价格战。”

　　为了应对去年的石油危机，美国生产商减少了资本支出、钻井和就业，并与竞争对手合并以支撑资产负债表。其结果是损失了约200万桶/天的产量，比整个墨西哥湾的产量还要多。但是由于经济复苏和沙特阿拉伯单方面减产，今年油价回升，对美国页岩油增产的诱惑越来越大。

　　美国能源情报署(EIA)预计，2022年美国石油日产量平均为1190万桶，较本季度平均产量增加约100万桶，增幅为9%。谢菲尔德“完全反对”EIA的预测，他表示，生产商现在知道了其中的利害关系，并将坚持资本纪律。

　　他指出:“如果明年我们的产量再增加100万桶/天，在我看来，到2023年，我们就会再次陷入价格战。”

　　到目前为止，还没有太多证据表明生产商显著提高了该领域的生产活动，但在未来几周，一旦公司开始公布第一季度业绩，投资者就会看到更清晰的画面。周三，西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格约为每桶62.80美元，约为一年前的三倍。

　　谢菲尔德预计，美国整体产量将以每年2% - 3%的速度增长，其中大部分增长来自西德克萨斯和新墨西哥州的二叠纪盆地，先锋自然资源是那里最大的生产商之一。他表示，所有其他地区页岩油田的产量都将下降。

　　注：Cartel:卡特尔，企业联盟（通过统一价格、防止竞争来增加共同利润）

　　裘寅 编译自 世界石油

　　原文如下：

　　Higher U.S. shale output could spark an OPEC price war, warns Pioneer CEO

　　U.S. shale producers risk another oil-price war with OPEC and its allies if they resume the breakneck production growth of the last decade, according to Pioneer Natural Resources Co.

　　Shale, and not the pandemic, was responsible for the initial oil-market crash of 2020, CEO Scott Sheffield said at BloombergNEF’s annual summit. The cartel, frustrated at U.S. producers’ success in taking market share from OPEC, allowed prices to tumble, he said.

　　“OPEC and Russia were upset that we grew too much,” said Sheffield. “If we ever start growing again too much, we’re going to have another price war.”

　　U.S. producers responded to last year’s oil collapse by reducing capital spending, drilling and jobs as well as merging with rivals to shore up balance sheets. The result has been lost production of about 2 million barrels a day, or more than output from the entire Gulf of Mexico. But as prices rebound this year, due to both the economic recovery and Saudi Arabia’s unilateral output cuts, temptation is growing for U.S. shale to ramp up output.

　　The Energy Information Administration sees U.S. oil production averaging 11.9 million barrels a day in 2022, up about 1 million barrels, or 9%, from the average this quarter. Sheffield is “totally against” the EIA’s forecast, saying that producers now know the stakes and will stick to their mantra of capital discipline.

　　“If we grow another million barrels a day next year, we’re going to have another price war in my opinion going into ‘23,” he said.

　　So far there hasn’t been much evidence of producers significantly boosting activity in the field, but investors will get a clearer picture once companies begin reporting first-quarter earnings in the coming weeks. West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded at about $62.80 a barrel on Wednesday, about triple from a year ago.

　　Sheffield sees overall U.S. production growing at a annual rate of 2% to 3%, with most of the increases coming from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, where Pioneer is one of the largest producers. All other shale fields will decline, he said.