雷斯塔预计全球石油需求将在2026年达到峰值

据世界能源新闻网2021年4月21日奥斯陆报道，挪威最大的独立能源咨询公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）4月21日在奥斯陆表示，全球电动汽车(EV)的迅速普及可能会导致全球石油需求比此前预期提前两年见顶。

Rystad称，目前全球石油需求将在2026年见顶于1.016亿桶/天，低于去年11月预估的2028年达到峰值1.022亿桶/天。

Rystad写道：“运输和其他依赖石油的部门正在加速采用电气化，这将比我们之前的预测更早更快地减少石油消耗。”

在2020年初COVID-19大流行爆发之前，Rystad曾预计，全球石油需求峰值将在2030年达到1.06亿桶/天。

Rystad称，除了电动汽车的令人震惊的收购，我们所有的假设都认为，全球石油需求将在多个行业被逐步淘汰、替代或回收。

李峻 编译自 世界能源新闻网

原文如下：

Rystad: Oil Demand to Peak in 2026

The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EV) around the world will probably cause global oil demand to peak two years earlier than previously expected, Norway's biggest independent energy consultancy Rystad said on Wednesday.

World demand is now seen peaking at 101.6 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2026, down from a forecast made in November of a peak in 2028 at 102.2 million bpd, Rystad Energy said.

"The adoption of electrification in transport and other oil-dependent sectors is accelerating and is set to chip away at oil sooner and faster than in our previous forecast," Rystad wrote.

Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, Rystad had anticipated that peak oil demand would be reached in 2030 at 106 million bpd.

Aside from the staggering takeover of EVs, assumptions across all our scenarios see oil demand being either phased out, substituted, or recycled across a range of sectors, it said.