全球最大石油交易商预计今年需求将强劲反弹

据油价网4月20日消息：全球最大的独立石油交易商维多集团(Vitol Group)表示，从现在到明年年底，全球石油需求将出现反弹，预计到2022年底，石油消费量将从目前的水平上升800万桶/天。

维多首席执行官拉塞尔?哈迪表示，目前石油需求比2019年的正常水平低350万桶/天，当时的消费量约为1亿桶/天。

哈迪还表示，重新开放的经济体和亚洲需求将支持今年年底到2022年的强劲需求反弹。航空燃油的需求复苏速度将慢于其他石油产品，到年底仍将比2019年水平低150万桶/天。不过，其他产品，尤其是石化产品的激增，将抵消航空燃油需求复苏的滞后。

去年积累的创纪录的10亿桶石油盈余已经消耗一半以上。哈迪告诉彭博社，按照目前200万桶/天的减产速度，剩余的过剩石油库存将在今年第三季度末耗尽，尽管欧佩克+计划到7月份增产200万桶/天。

维多对石油过剩的看法与其他预测人士和分析师类似，他们表示，过剩库存的末日即将到来。

哈迪对彭博社表示，今年剩余时间里，欧佩克+将继续担任市场管理者，在需求激增的情况下，该联盟将确保市场平衡，因为该组织拥有最大的闲置产能。

冯娟 摘译自 油价网

原文如下：

World’s Largest Oil Trader Expects Strong Demand Rebound This Year

Global oil demand is set for a rebound between now and the end of next year, with consumption expected to rise from current levels by as much as 8 million barrels per day (bpd) by end-2022, according to the world’s largest independent oil trader, Vitol Group.

“We will need all eight cylinders to get through 2022,” Vitol’s chief executive Russell Hardy told Bloomberg in an interview published on Tuesday.

Currently, oil demand is somewhere 3.5 million bpd below the “normal” levels of 2019, when consumption was around 100 million bpd, according to Hardy.

But reopening economies and Asian demand are set to support a strong demand rebound by the end of this year and into 2022, Hardy said. Demand for jet fuel will recover more slowly than other oil products and would still be 1.5 million bpd below 2019 levels by year end. Still, a surge in other products, especially in petrochemicals, will offset the lag in jet fuel demand recovery, Vitol’s executive told Bloomberg.

The record oil surplus of 1 billion barrels amassed last year is already more than halfway drained, Hardy said. At the current pace of drawdowns of 2 million bpd, the remaining excess oil stocks will be depleted by the end of the third quarter this year, even with the planned OPEC+ increase in production of 2 million bpd through July, Hardy told Bloomberg.

Vitol’s view on the oil glut is similar to that of other forecasters and analysts, who say that the end of the excess inventories is in sight.

For the rest of this year, OPEC+ will continue to be the market manager, and it would be up to the alliance to ensure a balanced market with demand surging, because the group holds the largest spare capacity, Hardy told Bloomberg.

“That’s going to come from OPEC because there is no other massive expansion coming because there is generally capital discipline across the West,” Hardy said.